Research

Published papers

Working papers

• Navigating Shocks: The Ripple Effects of Shipping Route Closures — with Carsten Philipp Brockhaus and Charles Serfaty Banque de France Working Paper, 1057, August 2026
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• PLAID: Product-Level AI-Derived Indicators Database for International Trade — with Carsten Brockhaus and Irene Iodice Kiel Working Paper, 2318, April 2026
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• Vibe Coding Kills Open Source — with Miklós Koren, Gábor Békés and Aaron Lohmann arXiv working paper arXiv:2601.15494, January 2026
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• Tariffs Hit Differently: The Regional Impact of US Tariffs across Europe and the Role of the Single Market — with Gabriel Felbermayr, Sebastian Krantz, Hendrik Mahlkow and Joschka Wanner Kiel Working Papers, 2309, December 2025. Revise and resubmit at the Journal of Economic Geography
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• To Russia with Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support — with Robert Gold and Michele Valsecchi CESifo Working Paper No. 11033, March 2024. Revise and resubmit at the Journal of the European Economic Association
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• Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections — with Matthieu Crozet Kiel Working Papers, 2246, April 2023
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• Exchange Rate Pass-Around — with Matthieu Crozet and Federico Trionfetti Kiel Working Papers, 2247, April 2023. Revise and resubmit at the International Economic Review
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Selected work-in-progress

• Who Pays the Tariffs? — with Anna Vorwig, Hendrik Mahlkow and Aaron Lohmann
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• When dispersed teams are more successful: Theory and evidence from software — with Gábor Békés, Miklós Koren and Aaron Lohmann
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• Bugs 🐞 — with Gábor Békés and Miklós Koren
• Firm-level Gravity with Fixed Effects — with Uğur Aytun, Cem Özgüzel and Joschka Wanner
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• The View from Space: Theory-based Time-varying Distances in the Gravity Model Work in progress
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• State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade — with Amrei Stammann and Joschka Wanner CEPA Discussion Papers, 36, July 2021
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• Frictions to intranational investment — with Inga Heiland
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• Separating the Wheat from the Chaff: Fast Estimation of GLMs with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects — with Alexander Hudletz and Joschka Wanner Eternal working paper
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• Frictions impede assortative matching in a global market for talent — with Keith Head
• Measuring Venezuelan Emigration with Twitter — with Ricardo Hausmann and Muhammed A. Yıldırım Eternal working paper
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Book chapters

Commentary

• A Critical-Inputs Playbook: What the Strait of Hormuz Tells Europe Intereconomics, 61(3), June 2026
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• Der EU-Binnenmarkt als Schutzschild: Wie Europa den Handelskrieg mit den USA abfedert — with Gabriel Felbermayr, Sebastian Krantz, Hendrik Mahlkow and Joschka Wanner Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, 2026(1)
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• Trumps Zölle: Chaotische Entkopplung — with Sonali Chowdhry and Hendrik Mahlkow Wirtschaftsdienst (Leitartikel), 105(4), April 2025
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• Sanctions coalitions: Stronger together — with Sonali Chowdhry, Katrin Kamin and Joschka Wanner VoxEU, October 2022
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• Engaging the Diaspora in Internationalizing Colombia's Economy — with Ricardo Hausmann, Ljubica Nedelkoska and AnnaLee Saxenian UNIDO Industrial Analytics Platform, March 2022
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• Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions — with Matthieu Crozet, Amrei Stammann and Joschka Wanner VoxEU, March 2021
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• Venezuelans Deserve Refugee Status — with Ricardo Hausmann Project Syndicate, May 2018
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• Transpazifische Partnerschaft TPP: Totgeglaubte leben länger Wirtschaftsdienst, December 2017
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• Collateral damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports — with Matthieu Crozet VoxEU, July 2016
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Policy papers and reports

• Competing with China in Third Markets — with Sonali Chowdhry and Katharina Erhardt Kiel Policy Brief, No. 213. June 2026
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• The Ukraine Support Tariff: How Europe Can Support Ukraine and Weaken Russia — with Moritz Schularick Kiel Policy Brief, No. 212. June 2026
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• The Cost of Closing the Strait of Hormuz: Energy Bottlenecks and Global Food Security — with Hendrik Mahlkow, Robin Sogalla and Gerald Willmann Kiel Policy Brief, No. 206. March 2026
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• America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? — with Anna Vorwig, Hendrik Mahlkow and Aaron Lohmann Kiel Policy Brief, No. 201. January 2026
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• The EU–India Trade Deal: Strategic Diversification in an Era of Uncertainty — with Rolf J. Langhammer, Hendrik Mahlkow and Vasundhara Thakur Kiel Policy Brief, No. 202. January 2026
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• Prinzipien für eine europäische Industrie- und Handelspolitik für das geoökonomische Zeitalter — with Irene Iodice and Moritz Schularick Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 26(3): 290–298, September 2025
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• An Alliance for Open Trade: How to Counter Trump's Tariffs — with Keith Head, Isabelle Méjean, Emanuel Ornelas and Moritz Schularick Kiel Policy Brief, No. 194. July 2025
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• Diversifizieren, nicht reagieren: Europas neuer Weg in der Handelspolitik — with Hendrik Mahlkow and Sonali Chowdhry WIFO Research Briefs, 5/2025. April 2025
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• Dealing with Global Economic Challenges: An Agenda for the New Federal Government — with Frank Bickenbach, Eckhardt Bode, Dirk Dohse, Holger Görg, Tobias Heidland, Rolf J. Langhammer, Wan-Hsin Liu, Wilfried Rickels and Moritz Schularick Kiel Policy Brief, No. 182. February 2025
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• Perspektiven einer erfolgreichen europäischen Handelspolitik im Kontext geopolitischer Herausforderungen — with Gabriel Felbermayr, Katrin Kamin, Sonali Chowdhry, Anna-Katharina Jacobs, Sandra Kill and Alexander Sandkamp IfW Studie, May 2021
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• Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse — with Martin Ademmer, Joscha Beckmann, Eckhardt Bode, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Manuel Funke, Philipp Hauber, Tobias Heidland, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Mareike Söder, Vincent Stamer and Ulrich Stolzenburg Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik. No. 32, Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), Kiel. February 2021
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• Datenmonitor global — Wie die Corona-Krise die Länder des globalen Südens trifft — with Katrin Kamin, Jakob Kutsch, Hendrik Mahlkow and Vincent Stamer IfW Studie im Auftrag des Auswärtigen Amtes, December 2020
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• The Economic Costs of War by Other Means — with Sonali Chowdhry, Gabriel Felbermayr, Katrin Kamin, Anna-Katharina Jacobs and Hendrik Mahlkow Kiel Policy Brief, No. 147, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel. October 2020
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• Bodenbildung in der Binnenwirtschaft, Kollaps des Welthandels — with Gabriel Felbermayr, Hendrik Mahlkow and Vincent Stamer Kiel Policy Briefs, Spezial Corona-Update 2, May 2020
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• Germany's economy in times of the Corona Lockdown — with Gabriel Felbermayr and Hendrik Mahlkow Kiel Policy Briefs, Spezial Corona-Update 1, April 2020
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• Russia’s and the EU’s Sanctions. Economic and Trade Effects, Compliance and the Way Forward — with Elisabeth Christen, Oliver Fritz and Franz Sinabell
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• Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftssanktionen der EU und Russlands auf Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung in Österreich und der EU — with Elisabeth Christen, Oliver Fritz and Gerhard Streicher WIFO Monographien, December 2016
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• Sanctions et embargos : quels impacts sur le commerce de la france vers la russie ? — with Matthieu Crozet La lettre du CEPII, April 2016
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