Après-ski: The Spread of Coronavirus from Ischgl through Germany with Gabriel Felbermayr and Sonali Chowdhry. German Economic Review, 22 (4): 415–446, November 2021.
Observed vs. counterfactual confirmed cases on May 9, 2020.
The Austrian ski resort of Ischgl is commonly claimed to be ground zero for the diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus across Germany. Drawing on data for 401 German counties, we find that conditional on geographical latitude and testing behavior by health authorities, road distance to Ischgl is indeed an important predictor of infection cases, but — in line with expectations — not of fatality rates. Were all German counties located as far from Ischgl as the most distant county of Vorpommern-Rügen, Germany would have seen about 48% fewer COVID-19 cases. A simple diffusion model predicts that the absolute value of the distance-to-Ischgl elasticity should fall over time when inter- and intra-county mobility are unrestricted. We test this hypothesis and conclude that the German lockdown measures have halted the spread of the virus.
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Media coverage
- Der Spiegel: Ground Zero in den Alpen
- Die Welt: So fatal war Ischgls „Ground Zero“-Effekt für Deutschland
- Focus: 'Ground Zero'-Effekt: Studie offenbart, was Ischgl-Drama für Deutschland bedeutete
- Der Tagesspiegel: Ischgl war der 'Ground Zero' für Deutschland
- Stern: Studie zeigt die fatale Rolle Ischgls bei Coronavirus-Ausbreitung in Deutschland
- Handelsblatt: Virenschleuder Ischgl: Wie das Coronavirus nach Deutschland kam
- Der Standard: Ischgl brachte Deutschland das meiste Unheil
- Merkur: Rasche Verbreitung: Corona-Studie zeigt das fatale Ausmaß, das Ischgl für Deutschland hat
- ARD Tagesschau: Après-Ski - eine Party für das Virus
- ZDF Frontal 21: Infektionsbeschleuniger Ischgl
Last updated on October 1, 2024. © Julian Hinz 1987–2024.