Research

My research agenda covers three broad themes: International trade, in particular its political economy and connection with foreign policy, the spatial dimension of international trade and migration, often in the context of the so-called gravity equation, and applied econometrics. My work is characterized by policy-relevant research questions that make use of state-of-the-art quantitative methods often involving big data, as well as devising and implementing econometric techniques to handle such types of data.

Published papers

2025

Shooting down trade: Firm-level effects of embargoes — with Uğur Aytun and Cem Özgüzel. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Volume 231: 106821, March 2025. details link

2024

Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes — with Sonali Chowdhry, Katrin Kamin and Joschka Wanner. Economic Policy, 39 (118): 471–512, April 2024. details link

2023

The Ties that Bind: Geopolitical Motivations for Economic Integration . Review of World Economics, 159 (1): 51–100, February 2023. details link

2022

Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia — with Evgenii Monastyrenko. Journal of International Economics, 137: 103581, July 2022. details link

2021

Après-ski: The Spread of Coronavirus from Ischgl through Germany — with Gabriel Felbermayr and Sonali Chowdhry. German Economic Review, 22 (4): 415–446, November 2021. details link
Worth the pain? Firms' exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions — with Matthieu Crozet, Amrei Stammann and Joschka Wanner. European Economic Review, 134: 103683, January 2021. details link

2020

Critically Important: The Heterogeneous Effect of Diplomatic Tensions on Trade — with Elsa Leromain. Review of Industrial Organization, 57 (2): 309–331, July 2020. details link
Friendly Fire: The Trade Impact of the Russia Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions — with Matthieu Crozet. Economic Policy, 35 (101): 97–146, May 2020. details link

Working Papers

Vibe Coding Kills Open Source — with Miklós Koren, Gábor Békés and Aaron Lohmann. arXiv working paper arXiv:2601.15494, January 2026. details link
Tariffs Hit Differently: The Regional Impact of US Tariffs across Europe and the Role of the Single Market — with Gabriel Felbermayr, Sebastian Krantz, Hendrik Mahlkow and Joschka Wanner. Kiel Working Papers, 2309, December 2025. Invited for submission to the Journal of Economic Geography. details link
To Russia with Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support — with Robert Gold and Michele Valsecchi. CESifo Working Paper No. 11033, March 2024. Revise and resubmit at the Journal of the European Economic Association. details link
Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Election — with Matthieu Crozet. Kiel Working Papers, 2247, December 2023. details
Exchange Rate Pass-Around — with Matthieu Crozet and Federico Trionfetti. Kiel Working Papers, 2246, April 2023. details link
The View from Space: Theory-based Time-varying Distances in the Gravity Model . Update coming soon. details latest draft
State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade — with Amrei Stammann and Joschka Wanner. CEPA Discussion Papers, 31, July 2021. details link
Separating the Wheat from the Chaff: Fast Estimation of GLMs with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects — with Alexander Hudletz and Joschka Wanner. Eternal working paper. details latest draft
Measuring Venezuelan Emigration with Twitter — with Ricardo Hausmann and Muhammed A. Yıldırım. Eternal working paper. details link

Selected work-in-progress

When dispersed teams are more successful: Theory and evidence from software — with Gábor Békés, Miklós Koren and Aaron Lohmann. details
Bugs 🐞 — with Gábor Békés and Miklós Koren.
Firm-level Gravity with Fixed Effects — with Uğur Aytun, Cem Özgüzel and Joschka Wanner. details
Frictions to intranational investment — with Inga Heiland. details
Frictions impede assortative matching in a global market for talent — with Keith Head.

Book Chapters

2024

What if? The Effects of a Hard Decoupling from China on the German Economy — with David Baqaee, Benjamin Moll, Moritz Schularick, Feodora Teti, Joschka Wanner and Sihwan Yang. in "Paris Report 2: Europe's Economic Security", Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (eds), CEPR Press, Paris & London. May 2024. details link

2019

Cost of Sanctions: Estimating Lost Trade with Gravity . In Disrupted Economic Relationships, CESifo Seminar Series at MIT Press, V. Nitsch and T. Besedeš eds. 2019. details link

Commentary

2022

Sanctions coalitions: Stronger together — with Sonali Chowdhry, Katrin Kamin and Joschka Wanner. VoxEU, October 2022. link

2021

Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions — with Matthieu Crozet, Amrei Stammann and Joschka Wanner. VoxEU, March 2021. link

2018

Venezuelans Deserve Refugee Status — with Ricardo Hausmann. Project Syndicate, May 2018. link

2017

Transpazifische Partnerschaft TPP: Totgeglaubte leben länger . Wirtschaftsdienst, December 2017. link

2016

Collateral damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports — with Matthieu Crozet. VoxEU, July 2016. link

Policy papers and reports

2026

America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? — with Anna Vorwig, Hendrik Mahlkow and Aaron Lohmann. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 201. January 2026. details link

2025

Prinzipien für eine europäische Industrie- und Handelspolitik für das geoökonomische Zeitalter — with Irene Iodice and Moritz Schularick. Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 26(3): 290–298, September 2025. link

2021

Perspektiven einer erfolgreichen europäischen Handelspolitik im Kontext geopolitischer Herausforderungen — with Gabriel Felbermayr, Katrin Kamin, Sonali Chowdhry, Anna-Katharina Jacobs, Sandra Kill and Alexander Sandkamp. IfW Studie, May 2021. link
Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse — with Martin Ademmer, Joscha Beckmann, Eckhardt Bode, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Manuel Funke, Philipp Hauber, Tobias Heidland, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Mareike Söder, Vincent Stamer and Ulrich Stolzenburg. Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik. No. 32, Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), Kiel. February 2021. link

2020

Datenmonitor global — Wie die Corona-Krise die Länder des globalen Südens trifft — with Katrin Kamin, Jakob Kutsch, Hendrik Mahlkow and Vincent Stamer. IfW Studie im Auftrag des Auswärtigen Amtes, December 2020. link
The Economic Costs of War by Other Means — with Sonali Chowdhry, Gabriel Felbermayr, Katrin Kamin, Anna-Katharina Jacobs and Hendrik Mahlkow. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 147, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel. October 2020. link
Bodenbildung in der Binnenwirtschaft, Kollaps des Welthandels — with Gabriel Felbermayr, Hendrik Mahlkow and Vincent Stamer. Kiel Policy Briefs, Spezial Corona-Update 2, May 2020. link
Germany's economy in times of the Corona Lockdown — with Gabriel Felbermayr and Hendrik Mahlkow. Kiel Policy Briefs, Spezial Corona-Update 1, April 2020. link

2017

Russia’s and the EU’s Sanctions. Economic and Trade Effects, Compliance and the Way Forward — with Elisabeth Christen, Oliver Fritz and Franz Sinabell. link

2016

Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftssanktionen der EU und Russlands auf Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung in Österreich und der EU — with Elisabeth Christen, Oliver Fritz and Gerhard Streicher. link
Sanctions et embargos : quels impacts sur le commerce de la france vers la russie ? — with Matthieu Crozet. La lettre du CEPII, April 2016. link