The EU–India Trade Deal: Strategic Diversification in an Era of Uncertainty

The brief studies an EU–India free trade agreement as a strategic diversification tool in a more uncertain trade environment. Simulations point to mutual welfare gains, substantially higher bilateral trade, and a meaningful reallocation of trade away from China.

For India, the agreement provides a hedge against US tariff pressure. For the EU, it supports de-risking and signals a commitment to open trade. The structural benefits are framed as a long-term partnership rather than a temporary response to current policy shocks.

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Data & Code

• KITE: The KITE (Kiel Institute Trade Policy Evaluation) model provides a tool for simulating and …