The Cost of Closing the Strait of Hormuz: Energy Bottlenecks and Global Food Security
with Hendrik Mahlkow, Robin Sogalla and Gerald Willmann. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 206. March 2026.The brief analyzes a closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a global energy bottleneck that propagates through chemicals, fertilizer production, and food prices. Because the channel carries a large share of global oil and liquefied natural gas, the shock creates especially severe losses for energy- and fertilizer-import-dependent developing countries.
Standard trade models understate these effects when they miss the bottleneck mechanism. The distributional burden is highly uneven: aggregate global costs may be moderate, but vulnerable economies in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East face much larger welfare losses and food security risks.
Links & Downloads
Data & Code
Last updated on June 20, 2026. © Julian Hinz 1987–2026.