Hi, I’m Julian Hinz.

I am an empirical economist studying issues in international economics, most often related to economic integration and disintegration. I am fond of unconventional, often big data, as well as the econometrics needed to work with such data. I work on topics related to sanctions, trade costs, migration, and political economy, and develop tools for the estimation of models with high-dimensional fixed effects.

Recent output

• Vibe Coding Kills Open Source — with Miklós Koren, Gábor Békés and Aaron Lohmann. arXiv working paper arXiv:2601.15494, January 2026.
• America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? — with Anna Vorwig, Hendrik Mahlkow and Aaron Lohmann. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 201. January 2026.
• Tariffs Hit Differently: The Regional Impact of US Tariffs across Europe and the Role of the Single Market — with Gabriel Felbermayr, Sebastian Krantz, Hendrik Mahlkow and Joschka Wanner. Kiel Working Papers, 2309, December 2025. Invited for submission to the Journal of Economic Geography.
• Prinzipien für eine europäische Industrie- und Handelspolitik für das geoökonomische Zeitalter — with Irene Iodice and Moritz Schularick. Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 26(3): 290–298, September 2025.
• Shooting down trade: Firm-level effects of embargoes — with Uğur Aytun and Cem Özgüzel. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Volume 231: 106821, March 2025.
• To Russia with Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support — with Robert Gold and Michele Valsecchi. CESifo Working Paper No. 11033, March 2024. Revise and resubmit at the Journal of the European Economic Association.

Recent talks

• 2025-12-12
  "Discussion of “Gravity in AI: How Digital Infrastructure Pulls Its Diffusion” — by Nuriye Bilgin & Gianmarco Ottaviano" — Workshop on “AI, digitization and trade patterns” — PSE, Paris.   Slides
• 2025-11-24
  ".ice — Shareable Calibration Files for Quantitative Trade Models — December 5, 2025" — Workshop on NQTMs for Policy Advice, Berlin, Germany.   Slides
• 2025-11-24
  "To Russia With Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Elections" — DICE Düsseldorf, Germany.   Slides   Related research

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