The Ukraine Support Tariff: How Europe Can Support Ukraine and Weaken Russia

A Ukraine Support Tariff on remaining EU–Russia trade would raise revenue for Ukraine while increasing pressure on Russia. The brief studies a combined import tariff and export-side levy on EU–Russia trade and evaluates revenue and welfare effects in partial and general equilibrium.

At moderate tariff rates of 30–50%, the proposal could generate revenue that exceeds annual proceeds from frozen Russian asset interest income. General equilibrium simulations show asymmetric leverage: Russia’s value added falls several times more than the EU’s, while trade diversion to China remains modest. Very high tariff rates would be counterproductive because long-run revenue would collapse.

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