A Ukraine Support Tariff on remaining EU–Russia trade would raise revenue for Ukraine while increasing pressure on Russia. The brief studies a combined import tariff and export-side levy on EU–Russia trade and evaluates revenue and welfare effects in partial and general equilibrium.
At moderate tariff rates of 30–50%, the proposal could generate revenue that exceeds annual proceeds from frozen Russian asset interest income. General equilibrium simulations show asymmetric leverage: Russia’s value added falls several times more than the EU’s, while trade diversion to China remains modest. Very high tariff rates would be counterproductive because long-run revenue would collapse.
@techreport{ukraine_support_tariff_2026,
title = {The Ukraine Support Tariff: How Europe Can Support Ukraine and Weaken Russia},
author = {Julian Hinz and Moritz Schularick},
institution = {Kiel Institute for the World Economy},
type = {Kiel Policy Brief},
number = {212},
year = {2026},
url = {https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/the-ukraine-support-tariff-how-europe-can-support-ukraine-and-weaken-russia-19839/}
}