Hi, I'm Julian Hinz.

I'm a Postdoctoral Researcher at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. I hold a PhD in Economics from the Paris School of Economics and Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. I mainly study International Trade, focussing on the interaction between trade and foreign policy.

For more information on me check out my CV or send me an e-mail at mail@julianhinz.com. You can also follow me on twitter.


Friendly Fire: The Trade Impact of the Russia Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions
2017 · with Matthieu Crozet · Kiel Working Paper, 2059 · CEPII letter (policy brief) · VoxEU column

Trade and financial sanctions are some of the favorites in the toolbox of foreign policy. Meant to hurt the target country's economy through artificial trade barriers in the form of restrictions or bans on trade of certain goods and services, severance of financial ties, or an all-out embargo, sanctions are used when diplomacy fails yet military options appear too drastic. Few studies have evaluated the effects of sanctions in the sender country's economy. Domestic exporters and importers may be cut off from an important partner country or transfers of goods and money are made more costly. The aim of this project is to shed light on the issue at hand using a rich data set of monthly French firm-level exports.

The Ties that Bind: Geopolitical Motivations for Economic Integration
2017 · Kiel Working Paper, 2085 · EIA dataset

Economic determinants of economic integration agreements (EIAs) have received ample attention in the economic literature. While political motivations for such agreements have received less focus, the economic and the political science literature have established connections between trade policy and domestic politics, as well as with the incidence of conflict, supporting the so-called liberal peace hypothesis: Trading countries become interdependent, generating higher costs for mutual conflict, where EIAs can institutionalize such dependencies and foster peace. In this paper I suggest a different, less romantic narrative: Trade policy, in the form of EIAs, is used as an instrument of foreign policy, where political considerations influence the choice of contracting partners. This delivers an alternate explanation for the vast increase in the number of EIAs over the past two decades, in which previously hegemonic and newly emerging powers fight for influence with more peaceful means.

Critically important: The heterogeneous effect of politics on trade
2017 · with Elsa Leromain · most recent draft · ERF Working Paper No. 1026

The proliferation of global value chains makes the domestic production of goods increasingly dependent on inputs from foreign sources. Apart from traditional determinants in the choice of sourcing partners for intermediate inputs, bilateral political relations between the trading countries are likely to play an important role. We construct a measure of dependence of an industry for a country and interact it with a measure of political relations in a structural gravity model. The results do not reject the hypothesis, however they are prone to endogeneity. To address this issue with perform a difference-in-difference approach, where the treatment is an exogeneous adverse polticial shock. Using a novel dataset on the status of diplomatic representation, we exploit the recalling or summoning of the ambassador of a country as a shock to bilateral political relations.

The View from Space: Theory-based Time-varying Distances in the Gravity Model
2016 · most recent draft

In this paper I compute distances used in the gravity model of international trade that improve the existing measures along multiple lines and help remedy the border puzzle. First I derive a trade cost aggregation that is agnostic to the underlying gravity framework, but yields concrete instructions on the method of computation and data to be used. The key parameter of the aggregation turns out to be the elasticity of trade to the respective trade cost, which, conveniently, can be estimated in the gravity model. Based on this method I then compute aggregate bilateral and internal country distances. For data on the economic geography of countries I turn to nightlight satellite imagery that provides information on the location and approximate intensity of economic activity in virtually all populated areas on Earth in very fine detail. Its annual periodicity allows me to compute a time series of distances for each country pair and year since 1992, accounting for changes in the economic geography.

The Economic Geography of Europe and the Role of Regional Policy
2012 · Evaluation of the impact of EU regional policy in a New Economic Geography framework; my master thesis (M2R)

A Spatial Extension to Growth Models
2011 · A spatial extension to the classic Solow growth model; my master thesis (M1)


Commerce international et firmes multinationales
2015 - 2016 · Tutorial for graduate students at Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, France

International Economics
2015 · Lecture for undergraduate students at the Euro-American Campus of Sciences Po Paris, France

Maths and Economics Refresher
2014 - 2015 · Graduate course at Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, France

2013-2014 · Lecture for undergraduate students at the Euro-American Campus of Sciences Po Paris, France

2013 · Graduate course at Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, France