trade agreements · Julian Hinz

The EU–India Trade Deal: Strategic Diversification in an Era of Uncertainty

Julian Hinz — Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The brief studies an EU–India free trade agreement as a strategic diversification tool in a more uncertain trade environment. Simulations point to mutual welfare gains, substantially higher bilateral trade, and a meaningful reallocation of trade away from China.

For India, the agreement provides a hedge against US tariff pressure. For the EU, it supports de-risking and signals a commitment to open trade. The structural benefits are framed as a long-term partnership rather than a temporary response to current policy shocks.

Diversifizieren, nicht reagieren: Europas neuer Weg in der Handelspolitik

Hendrik Mahlkow — Thu, 10 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Die neue Zollpolitik der USA konfrontiert die EU mit wachsender handelspolitischer Unsicherheit. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysiert dieser Research Brief drei Szenarien, mit denen die EU auf protektionistische Tendenzen reagieren kann: 1. ein sektorales Handelsabkommen mit den USA, 2. die Vertiefung bestehender Freihandelsabkommen und 3. der Abschluss neuer Freihandelsabkommen mit Partnern wie Indien, Australien oder dem Mercosur. Basierend auf Simulationen mit dem KITE-Modell zeigt sich: Während ein auf die USA beschränktes Abkommen kaum makroökonomische Effekte hat, führen sowohl Szenario 2 als auch Szenario 3 zu einem robusten BIP- und Exportwachstum – insbesondere in wissensintensiven Sektoren. Die stärksten Effekte ergeben sich jedoch aus einer Kombination beider Strategien, wobei der Effekt für Österreich etwas geringer ausfallen würde, da Österreichs Wirtschaftsstruktur stärker auf bestehende EU-Handelspartner und traditionelle Absatzmärkte ausgerichtet ist. Handelsdiversifizierung ist somit kein technisches Detail, sondern ein zentrales Instrument europäischer Resilienzpolitik.

An Analysis of the Implementation of the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)

Julian Hinz — Wed, 01 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +0000

This in-depth analysis offers a quantitative analysis of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada, six years after its provisional enforcement. Our analysis confirms substantial economic gains: goods exports from the EU to Canada increased by 27 % and imports rose by 32 % due to the agreement. The services sector also showed robust growth, with 19 % and 15 % increases in exports and imports, respectively. However, the paper identifies challenges, such as the low Preference Utilization Rate (PUR), predominantly among large firms, and highlights that SMEs still account for less than half of the EU’s total exports to Canada. Beyond the immediate economic impact, the analysis focuses on key issues in the implementation and offers further quantitative evidence on critical raw material policies and mutual recognition agreements.

The Ties that Bind: Geopolitical Motivations for Economic Integration

Julian Hinz — Wed, 01 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Evolution of the mean of Importance of bilateral relations of big (left) and small (b) countries in future agreement with an EIA partner country and non-partner countries around trade deal at t = 0.

Economic determinants of economic integration agreements have received ample attention in the economic literature. Political motivations for such agreements have been mostly studied as functions of domestic politics or in the context of conflict. In this paper the author suggests a different narrative. Economic integration may be used as an instrument of foreign policy, where political considerations influence the choice of contracting partners. He sketches a simple model that exhibits the proposed mechanism in which a big country chooses between alternatives for integration in terms of economic and political welfare gains, while a small country is indifferent between possible partners for integration. In the empirical part the author uses a novel dataset on political events to test the predictions of the model and finds evidence for the hypothesis that there is more to economic integration than “just trade”. Geopolitical considerations play a determining role in the choice of the contracting partner country and the depth of economic integration.

Effects of the AfCFTA for German and European Companies

Julian Hinz — Sat, 01 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000

In May 2019, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement entered into force. In numerous respects, the AfCFTA can be considered a historic milestone towards trade liberalization on the African continent. Following ten rounds of official negotiations beginning in June 2015, the agreement now spans 55 African Union Member States of which 43 have already deposited their instruments of ratification. By connecting these economies, AfCFTA has become the largest trading bloc in the world in terms of market size, covering more than 1.3 billion consumers with combined GDP of USD 2.5 trillion. The AfCFTA’s core objective is to deepen the economic integration of the African continent by creating a single market for the movement of goods, services, capital and natural persons. In this study, we assess the status quo of trade within AfCFTA economies and between AfCFTA and EU economies, and outline three hypothetical future outcomes of AfCFTA for different levels of trade liberalization. The study was conducted with the support of Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).

The Brussels Effect 2.0: How the EU Sets Global Standards with Its Trade Policy

Elisabeth Christen — Sat, 01 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000

The creation of uniform, legally binding norms and standards is an essential basis for the functioning of the EU single market, which at the same time is increasingly spread beyond the EU’s borders through international trade relations. The shaping of global standards and regulations according to EU directives even beyond the EU’s borders represents an important competitive advantage of the EU. The EU also manages to impose rules, regulations and standards only through market mechanisms in third countries without international treaties or agreements. This has in many areas contributed to the “Europeanisation” of important aspects of global trade. In the academic literature, this regulatory influence of the EU is defined as the “Brussels Effect”. The focus of this study is to give a comprehensive overview of the Brussels Effect and to analyse the linkages regarding EU trade policy, outlining to what extent a Brussels Effect can be observed in the network of EU trade agreements. Based on a comprehensive and broad identification of the Brussels Effect, this study aims to quantify the trade effects in terms of the leading role in shaping global standards and regulations for the EU and Austria and to qualitatively identify further areas in which untapped potentials of a “Brussels Effect 2.0” seem possible in the context of EU trade policy.

Potential Economic Benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area for Africa and the EU

Julian Hinz — Sat, 01 Jan 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Despite some growth, intra-African trade activity remains at low levels and falls far behind the levels of internal trade observed in more integrated regions like the EU. The European continent remains a major trading partner, but its share in total African exports and imports has decreased from nearly 50% to 35% between 2000 and 2020. Our simulations suggest that implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement can lead to substantial welfare gains in Africa, but only if tariff reductions are accompanied by a significant lowering of Non-Tariff-Barriers (NTBs). If NTBs are reduced on a multilateral basis, the EU’s declining trade share with Africa might also be reversed. European governments and EU institutions should therefore have an incentive to provide technical and financial assistance — possibly within the framework of the existing WTO-led aid-for-trade initiative — to help AfCFTA economies lowering NTBs on a multilateral basis.

Transpazifische Partnerschaft TPP: Totgeglaubte leben länger

Julian Hinz — Fri, 15 Dec 2017 00:00:00 +0000