industrial policy · Julian Hinz

Competing with China in Third Markets

Sonali Chowdhry — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

China’s export growth is increasingly concentrated in advanced manufacturing sectors, but the loss of European market shares in third markets is not explained by Chinese competition alone. Germany, France, and other European economies have also lost ground to competitors outside China in many markets.

The brief argues against broad tariffs as the default response to Chinese competition. Instead, durable competitiveness requires investment in innovation and new technology. Where sectoral safeguards are considered, they should be justified by strategic or security concerns or clear evidence of unfair trade practices, and temporary protection should include sunset clauses.

Prinzipien für eine europäische Industrie- und Handelspolitik für das geoökonomische Zeitalter

Julian Hinz — Mon, 01 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Time to Be Open, Sustainable, and Assertive: Tariffs on Chinese BEVs and Retaliatory Measures

Gabriel Felbermayr — Mon, 01 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000

From 4 July, the EU will impose provisional countervailing tariffs of 21% on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) imported from China. It is the last large market - and in itself largest export market - to impose new substantial trade barriers against Chinese BEVs. According to simulations of a large-scale trade model (KITE model), this measure raises the car prices in the EU and lowers them in China in the long-run. Yet, the effects are small. Short-term effects are likely to be larger. Car imports from China are expected to fall by 42%, but this effect is largely offset by diversion of European sales to domestic markets and higher imports from other third markets. EU car exports are only marginally affected. Value added in the EU’s car industry rises by 0.4%, while it falls by 0.6% in China. In most EU countries, welfare increases, but by less than 1/100th of a percentage point.