big data · Julian Hinz

Gravity Distances

Julian Hinz — Fri, 01 May 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Ratio of arithmetic over harmonic distances in 2000.

Gravity-consistent aggregate distances (harmonic, geometric and arithmetic mean) between countries and other geographical entities computed using nighttime lights data as weights. In most applications the use of the harmonic mean distance (theta = -1) is recommended. Similarly, often time-invariant distances are sufficient, e.g. those with weight from the year 2000.

Entities	Years	File	Size
Countries to countries	2000	distances_countries-countries_2000.rds	801 KB
		distances_countries-countries_2000.csvy.gz	1.3 MB
		distances_countries-countries_2000.dta.gz	1 MB
	1992 – 2012	distances_countries-countries_1992-2012.rds	16.7 MB
		distances_countries-countries_1992-2012.csvy.gz	26.7 MB
		distances_countries-countries_1992-2012.dta.gz	21.4 MB
EU NUTS 2 regions to EU NUTS 2 regions	2000	distances_eu_nuts2-eu_nuts2_2000.rds	2.5 MB
		distances_eu_nuts2-eu_nuts2_2000.csvy.gz	3.9 MB
		distances_eu_nuts2-eu_nuts2_2000.dta.gz	3.2 MB
EU NUTS 3 regions to EU NUTS 3 regions	2000	distances_eu_nuts3-eu_nuts3_2000.rds	55.7 MB
		distances_eu_nuts3-eu_nuts3_2000.csvy.gz	77.4 MB
		distances_eu_nuts3-eu_nuts3_2000.dta.gz	65.1 MB
US states to US states	2000	distances_usstates-usstates_2000.rds	42 KB
		distances_usstates-usstates_2000.csvy.gz	87 KB
		distances_usstates-usstates_2000.dta.gz	71 KB
	1992 – 2012	distances_usstates-usstates_1992-2012.rds	1.2 MB
		distances_usstates-usstates_1992-2012.csvy.gz	1.7 MB
		distances_usstates-usstates_1992-2012.dta.gz	1.6 MB
US states to countries	2000	distances_usstates-countries_2000.rds	419 KB
		distances_usstates-countries_2000.csvy.gz	669 KB
		distances_usstates-countries_2000.dta.gz	543 KB
	1992 – 2012	distances_usstates-countries_1992-2012.rds	8.7 MB
		distances_usstates-countries_1992-2012.csvy.gz	12.5 MB
		distances_usstates-countries_1992-2012.dta.gz	11.4 MB
US states to Canadian provinces	2000	distances_usstates-canprovinces_2000.rds	19 KB
		distances_usstates-canprovinces_2000.csvy.gz	42 KB
		distances_usstates-canprovinces_2000.dta.gz	35 KB
	1992 – 2012	distances_usstates-canprovinces_1992-2012.rds	612 KB
		distances_usstates-canprovinces_1992-2012.csvy.gz	887 KB
		distances_usstates-canprovinces_1992-2012.dta.gz	808 KB
Canadian provinces to Canadian provinces	2000	distances_canprovinces-canprovinces_2000.rds	3 KB
		distances_canprovinces-canprovinces_2000.csvy.gz	5 KB
		distances_canprovinces-canprovinces_2000.dta.gz	4 KB
	1992 – 2012	distances_canprovinces-canprovinces_1992-2012.rds	60 KB
		distances_canprovinces-canprovinces_1992-2012.csvy.gz	111 KB
		distances_canprovinces-canprovinces_1992-2012.dta.gz	101 KB
Canadian provinces to countries	2000	distances_canprovinces-countries_2000.rds	96 KB
		distances_canprovinces-countries_2000.csvy.gz	169 KB
		distances_canprovinces-countries_2000.dta.gz	137 KB
	1992 – 2012	distances_canprovinces-countries_1992-2012.rds	2.2 MB
		distances_canprovinces-countries_1992-2012.csvy.gz	3.2 MB
		distances_canprovinces-countries_1992-2012.dta.gz	2.9 MB
Norwegian municipalities to	2011	distances_norway_municipalities_gpwv4_2011.rds	4 MB
Norwegian municipalities (kommuner)		distances_norway_municipalities_gpwv4_2011.csvy.gz	5.9 MB
		distances_norway_municipalities_gpwv4_2011.dta.gz	5 MB

Note that EU NUTS regions include those of candidate countries as well as of the UK. US states include Washington, DC and Puerto Rico.

For more detailed data with thetas ranging from -2 to +1 the use of the R package gravity.distances is recommended.

If you need gravity distances between geographic entities not listed above that could also be of interest to other researchers, please send me an e-mail. Maybe we can work something out: mail@julianhinz.com

The Ties that Bind: Geopolitical Motivations for Economic Integration

Julian Hinz — Wed, 01 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Evolution of the mean of Importance of bilateral relations of big (left) and small (b) countries in future agreement with an EIA partner country and non-partner countries around trade deal at t = 0.

Economic determinants of economic integration agreements have received ample attention in the economic literature. Political motivations for such agreements have been mostly studied as functions of domestic politics or in the context of conflict. In this paper the author suggests a different narrative. Economic integration may be used as an instrument of foreign policy, where political considerations influence the choice of contracting partners. He sketches a simple model that exhibits the proposed mechanism in which a big country chooses between alternatives for integration in terms of economic and political welfare gains, while a small country is indifferent between possible partners for integration. In the empirical part the author uses a novel dataset on political events to test the predictions of the model and finds evidence for the hypothesis that there is more to economic integration than “just trade”. Geopolitical considerations play a determining role in the choice of the contracting partner country and the depth of economic integration.

The View from Space: Theory-based Time-varying Distances in the Gravity Model

Julian Hinz — Sat, 15 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Aggregate distances over time (Exponents in generalized mean of -1 and 1). Commonly used time-invariant distances from Mayer and Zignago (2011) for comparison.

In this paper I use a general representation of the gravity model in international economics to derive a theory-consistent spatial aggregation of bilateral frictions. I apply the method to compute time-varying country-to-country distances, used in estimations of the gravity model in fields ranging from international trade, to foreign direct investment and migration. The aggregation takes the form of a weighted generalized mean, where the weights reflect the spatial distribution of economic activity in a country and the elasticity of the bilateral friction in question is a key parameter. I use annually available satellite imagery on nighttime light emissions for highly-detailed information on the economic geography of countries, capturing urban and rural areas and reflecting changes over time. Employing the computed distances in an application to the gravity equation of international trade yields a number of noteworthy results. Exploiting the time variation, I can estimate the distance elasticity while controlling for unobserved country-pair characteristics. Estimates for the distance coefficient are in the range of -0.5 and -1. Furthermore, the distances' use yields important consequences for estimates of other gravity variables: the border coefficient, i.e. the often puzzlingly large relative difference between internal and external trade, is reduced by between 30% and 50%. Regressions using simulated data confirm the theoretical and empirical findings.

The Role of the Diaspora in the Internationalization of the Colombian Economy

Ljubica Nedelkoska — Sat, 01 May 2021 00:00:00 +0000

We studied the geography as well as the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of 1.7 million members of the global Colombian diaspora (34% of the total estimated Colombian diaspora) using census and survey data from major host countries, and 3.5 million Twitter users located around the world presumed to be of Colombian origin. We also studied the locations and industries of Colombian senior managers and directors outside Colombia, using a global database of over 400 million companies. Moreover, we studied the migration journeys, the diaspora’s attachment to Colombia, the level of diaspora engagement and interest in engaging, the intentions to return back home, the interest in diaspora government policy, and the overall sentiment of the diaspora towards Colombia, through a survey which received 11,500 responses from the diaspora in well over 100 countries in less than two months. We additionally interviewed 12 Colombian transnational entrepreneurs and professionals, to understand what attracts them professionally to Colombia, and what may stand in the way of more diaspora engagement and professional growth. The study provided input to the Steering Committee of Colombia’s Internationalization Mission (2020–2021).

Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse

Julian Hinz — Mon, 15 Feb 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Venezuelans Deserve Refugee Status

Ricardo Hausmann — Wed, 30 May 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Measuring Venezuelan Emigration with Twitter

Ricardo Hausmann — Mon, 28 May 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Movement of Twitter users within Venezuela and to neighboring countries.

Venezuela has seen an unprecedented exodus of people in recent months. In response to a dramatic economic downturn in which inflation is soaring, oil production tanking, and a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding, many Venezuelans are seeking refuge in neighboring countries. However, the lack of official numbers on emigration from the Venezuelan government, and receiving countries largely refusing to acknowledge a refugee status for affected people, it has been difficult to quantify the magnitude of this crisis. In this note we document how we use data from the social media service Twitter to measure the emigration of people from Venezuela. Using a simple statistical model that allows us to correct for a sampling bias in the data, we estimate that up to 2.9 million Venezuelans have left the country in the past year.