# The Ukraine Support Tariff: How Europe Can Support Ukraine and Weaken Russia

- URL: https://julianhinz.com/research/ukraine_support_tariff/
- Type: Policy paper
- Authors: Julian Hinz, Moritz Schularick
- Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 212. June 2026
- Date: 2026-06-01
- Topics: trade policy, tariffs, Russia, EU
- Paper: https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/the-ukraine-support-tariff-how-europe-can-support-ukraine-and-weaken-russia-19839/

## Summary

A Ukraine Support Tariff on remaining EU--Russia trade would raise revenue for Ukraine while increasing pressure on Russia. The brief studies a combined import tariff and export-side levy on EU--Russia trade and evaluates revenue and welfare effects in partial and general equilibrium.

At moderate tariff rates of 30--50%, the proposal could generate revenue that exceeds annual proceeds from frozen Russian asset interest income. General equilibrium simulations show asymmetric leverage: Russia's value added falls several times more than the EU's, while trade diversion to China remains modest. Very high tariff rates would be counterproductive because long-run revenue would collapse.

## Presentations

- 2026-06-11: "Ukraine Support Tariff", Roundtable lunch “Endgame”, Kiel Institute, Berlin

## Media coverage

- 2026-06-09: Der Spiegel: Ökonomen schlagen Strafzoll auf Russlandhandel vor (https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ukraine-krieg-oekonomen-schlagen-strafzoll-auf-russland-handel-vor-a-969fae6b-24ef-4865-b8ed-b597a5ef2042)

## Cite (BibTeX)

```bibtex
@techreport{ukraine_support_tariff_2026,
  title = {The Ukraine Support Tariff: How Europe Can Support Ukraine and Weaken Russia},
  author = {Julian Hinz and Moritz Schularick},
  institution = {Kiel Institute for the World Economy},
  type = {Kiel Policy Brief},
  number = {212},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/the-ukraine-support-tariff-how-europe-can-support-ukraine-and-weaken-russia-19839/}
}
```