# PLAID: Product-Level AI-Derived Indicators Database for International Trade

- URL: https://julianhinz.com/research/plaid/
- Type: Working paper
- Authors: Carsten Brockhaus, Julian Hinz, Irene Iodice
- Status: Kiel Working Paper, 2318, April 2026
- Date: 2026-04-16
- Topics: gravity models, AI, trade data
- Link: https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/plaid-product-level-ai-derived-indicators-database-for-international-trade-19688/
- Code: [PLAID](https://julianhinz.com/data-code/plaid/index.md)

## Abstract

Empirical trade research routinely relies on product-level indicators -- whether goods are homogeneous or differentiated, perishable or durable, hazardous or benign -- but existing classifications were built for older nomenclatures and have not kept pace with modern HS data. Mapping them forward through concordance tables introduces measurement error that is difficult to quantify and impossible to fix at the source.

PLAID takes a different approach. An ensemble of four frontier LLMs independently reads each HS 6-digit product description and classifies it, with majority voting across models and built-in uncertainty quantification through inter-model disagreement. The beta release (v0.1) provides six indicators across all seven HS revisions since 1992:

- **Rauch classification** (organised exchange / reference priced / differentiated)
- **BEC end-use** (capital / intermediate / consumption)
- **Economic perishability** (five-class scale with half-life estimate)
- **Hazardous materials** (GHS/IMDG dangerous goods flag)
- **Semiconductor content** (microchip/IC presence)
- **3TG conflict minerals** (tin, tantalum, tungsten, gold)

Each indicator is validated against external benchmarks where available and demonstrated to be empirically relevant through gravity applications. All data and code are open.

Website: [plaid.julianhinz.com](https://plaid.julianhinz.com) (mirror: [trade.ifw-kiel.de/PLAID](https://trade.ifw-kiel.de/PLAID/))

![HS-6 level Rauch classifications reveal substantial heterogeneity within individual SITC headings.](https://julianhinz.com/research/plaid/heterogeneity-within-SITC.png)

## Cite (BibTeX)

```bibtex
@techreport{plaid_2026,
  title = {{PLAID}: Product-Level {AI}-Derived Indicators Database for International Trade},
  author = {Carsten Brockhaus and Julian Hinz and Irene Iodice},
  institution = {Kiel Institute for the World Economy},
  type = {Kiel Working Paper},
  number = {2318},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/plaid-product-level-ai-derived-indicators-database-for-international-trade-19688/}
}
```