# Research

- URL: https://julianhinz.com/research/

My research agenda covers three broad themes: International trade, in particular its political economy and connection with foreign policy, the spatial dimension of international trade and migration, often in the context of the so-called gravity equation, and applied econometrics.
My work is characterized by policy-relevant research questions that make use of state-of-the-art quantitative methods often involving big data, as well as devising and implementing econometric techniques to handle such types of data.

## Published papers

- [Shooting down trade: Firm-level effects of embargoes](https://julianhinz.com/research/shooting_down_trade/index.md) — Uğur Aytun, Julian Hinz, Cem Özgüzel. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Volume 231: 106821, March 2025
- [Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes](https://julianhinz.com/research/sanctions_coalitions/index.md) — Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, Joschka Wanner. Economic Policy, 39 (118): 471–512, April 2024
- [The Ties that Bind: Geopolitical Motivations for Economic Integration](https://julianhinz.com/research/geopolitical_motivations/index.md). Review of World Economics, 159 (1): 51–100, February 2023
- [Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia](https://julianhinz.com/research/prices_in_russia/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Evgenii Monastyrenko. Journal of International Economics, 137: 103581, July 2022
- [Après-ski: The Spread of Coronavirus from Ischgl through Germany](https://julianhinz.com/research/coronavirus_from_ischgl/index.md) — Gabriel Felbermayr, Julian Hinz, Sonali Chowdhry. German Economic Review, 22 (4): 415–446, November 2021
- [Worth the pain? Firms' exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions](https://julianhinz.com/research/worth_the_pain/index.md) — Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz, Amrei Stammann, Joschka Wanner. European Economic Review, 134: 103683, May 2021
- [Critically Important: The Heterogeneous Effect of Diplomatic Tensions on Trade](https://julianhinz.com/research/critically_important/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Elsa Leromain. Review of Industrial Organization, 57 (2): 309–331, July 2020
- [Friendly Fire: The Trade Impact of the Russia Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions](https://julianhinz.com/research/friendly_fire/index.md) — Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz. Economic Policy, 35 (101): 97–146, May 2020

## Book chapters

- [Trade Sanctions: Evidence From Russia](https://julianhinz.com/research/trade_sanctions/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Matthieu Crozet, Patrik Šváb. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, October 2026
- [What if? The Effects of a Hard Decoupling from China on the German Economy](https://julianhinz.com/research/what_if_china/index.md) — David Baqaee, Julian Hinz, Benjamin Moll, Moritz Schularick, Feodora Teti, Joschka Wanner, Sihwan Yang. in "Paris Report 2: Europe's Economic Security", Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (eds), CEPR Press, Paris & London. May 2024
- [The Cost of Sanctions: Estimating Lost Trade with Gravity](https://julianhinz.com/research/cost_of_sanctions/index.md). In Disrupted Economic Relationships, CESifo Seminar Series at MIT Press, V. Nitsch and T. Besedeš eds. 2019

## Working papers

- [Navigating Shocks: The Ripple Effects of Shipping Route Closures](https://julianhinz.com/research/navigating_shocks/index.md) — Carsten Philipp Brockhaus, Julian Hinz, Charles Serfaty. Banque de France Working Paper, 1057, August 2026
- [PLAID: Product-Level AI-Derived Indicators Database for International Trade](https://julianhinz.com/research/plaid/index.md) — Carsten Brockhaus, Julian Hinz, Irene Iodice. Kiel Working Paper, 2318, April 2026
- [Vibe Coding Kills Open Source](https://julianhinz.com/research/vibe_coding_kills_open_source/index.md) — Miklós Koren, Gábor Békés, Julian Hinz, Aaron Lohmann. arXiv working paper arXiv:2601.15494, January 2026
- [Tariffs Hit Differently: The Regional Impact of US Tariffs across Europe and the Role of the Single Market](https://julianhinz.com/research/tariffs_hit_differently/index.md) — Gabriel Felbermayr, Julian Hinz, Sebastian Krantz, Hendrik Mahlkow, Joschka Wanner. Kiel Working Papers, 2309, December 2025. Reject and resubmit at the Journal of Economic Geography
- [To Russia with Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support](https://julianhinz.com/research/sanctions_and_russian_elections/index.md) — Robert Gold, Julian Hinz, Michele Valsecchi. CESifo Working Paper No. 11033, March 2024. Revise and resubmit at the Journal of the European Economic Association
- [Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections](https://julianhinz.com/research/sanctions_and_french_elections/index.md) — Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz. Kiel Working Papers, 2246, April 2023
- [Exchange Rate Pass-Around](https://julianhinz.com/research/exchange_rate_pass-around/index.md) — Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz, Federico Trionfetti. Kiel Working Papers, 2247, April 2023. Revise and resubmit at the International Economic Review
- [State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade](https://julianhinz.com/research/persistent_zeros/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Amrei Stammann, Joschka Wanner. CEPA Discussion Papers, 36, July 2021

## Policy papers

- [Competing with China in Third Markets](https://julianhinz.com/research/competing_with_china_third_markets/index.md) — Sonali Chowdhry, Katharina Erhardt, Julian Hinz. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 213. June 2026
- [The Ukraine Support Tariff: How Europe Can Support Ukraine and Weaken Russia](https://julianhinz.com/research/ukraine_support_tariff/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Moritz Schularick. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 212. June 2026
- [The Cost of Closing the Strait of Hormuz: Energy Bottlenecks and Global Food Security](https://julianhinz.com/research/cost_of_closing_hormuz/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Hendrik Mahlkow, Robin Sogalla, Gerald Willmann. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 206. March 2026
- [America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs?](https://julianhinz.com/research/americas_own_goal/index.md) — Anna Vorwig, Hendrik Mahlkow, Aaron Lohmann, Julian Hinz. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 201. January 2026
- [The EU–India Trade Deal: Strategic Diversification in an Era of Uncertainty](https://julianhinz.com/research/eu_india_trade_deal/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Rolf J. Langhammer, Hendrik Mahlkow, Vasundhara Thakur. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 202. January 2026
- [Prinzipien für eine europäische Industrie- und Handelspolitik für das geoökonomische Zeitalter](https://julianhinz.com/research/prinzipien_geoekonomische_industriepolitik/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Irene Iodice, Moritz Schularick. Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 26(3): 290–298, September 2025
- [An Alliance for Open Trade: How to Counter Trump's Tariffs](https://julianhinz.com/research/alliance_for_open_trade/index.md) — Keith Head, Julian Hinz, Isabelle Méjean, Emanuel Ornelas, Moritz Schularick. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 194. July 2025
- [Diversifizieren, nicht reagieren: Europas neuer Weg in der Handelspolitik](https://julianhinz.com/research/diversifizieren_nicht_reagieren/index.md) — Hendrik Mahlkow, Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz. WIFO Research Briefs, 5/2025. April 2025
- [The Consequences of the Trump Trade War for Europe](https://julianhinz.com/research/trump_trade_war_europe/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Isabelle Méjean, Moritz Schularick. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 190. April 2025
- [Dealing with Global Economic Challenges: An Agenda for the New Federal Government](https://julianhinz.com/research/global_economic_challenges_agenda/index.md) — Frank Bickenbach, Eckhardt Bode, Dirk Dohse, Holger Görg, Tobias Heidland, Julian Hinz, Rolf J. Langhammer, Wan-Hsin Liu, Wilfried Rickels, Moritz Schularick. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 182. February 2025
- [US Trade Policy after 2024: What Is at Stake for Europe?](https://julianhinz.com/research/us_trade_policy_after_2024/index.md) — Gabriel Felbermayr, Julian Hinz, Rolf J. Langhammer. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 178. October 2024
- [Time to Be Open, Sustainable, and Assertive: Tariffs on Chinese BEVs and Retaliatory Measures](https://julianhinz.com/research/tariffs_chinese_bevs/index.md) — Gabriel Felbermayr, Klaus S. Friesenbichler, Julian Hinz, Hendrik Mahlkow. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 177. July 2024
- [Navigating Trade Restrictions](https://julianhinz.com/research/russia_monitor_trade_restrictions/index.md) — Vasily Astrov, Carsten Brockhaus, Julian Hinz, Levke Jessen-Thiesen, Hendrik Mahlkow, Patrik Šváb. Russia Monitor, No. 3, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). February 2024
- [Coalitions for Sanctions Heighten Costs for Russia but Burden of Implementation Should Be Shared among Member Countries](https://julianhinz.com/research/diw_sanctions_coalitions/index.md) — Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Joschka Wanner, Katrin Kamin. DIW Weekly Report, 14(8): 65–72. February 2024
- [Was wäre wenn? Die Auswirkungen einer harten Abkopplung von China auf die deutsche Wirtschaft](https://julianhinz.com/research/was_waere_wenn_china/index.md) — David Baqaee, Julian Hinz, Benjamin Moll, Moritz Schularick, Feodora A. Teti, Joschka Wanner, Sihwan Yang. Kiel Policy Brief, Nr. 170. 2024
- [An Analysis of the Implementation of the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)](https://julianhinz.com/research/ep_ceta_implementation/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Carsten Philipp Brockhaus, Sonali Chowdhry, Hendrik Mahlkow, Vasundhara Thakur. In-Depth Analysis for the European Parliament (INTA), PE 754.440. November 2023
- [The Brussels Effect 2.0: How the EU Sets Global Standards with Its Trade Policy](https://julianhinz.com/research/brussels_effect_2/index.md) — Elisabeth Christen, Birgit Meyer, Harald Oberhofer, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, Joschka Wanner. FIW-Research Report, No. 2022-07
- [Effects of the AfCFTA for German and European Companies](https://julianhinz.com/research/afcfta_german_companies/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Sonali Chowdhry, Anna Jacobs, Rainer Thiele. IfW Kiel Study, October 2022
- [Potential Economic Benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area for Africa and the EU](https://julianhinz.com/research/afcfta_africa_eu/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Sonali Chowdhry, Anna Jacobs, Rainer Thiele. PEGNet Policy Brief, No. 28/2022
- [Perspektiven einer erfolgreichen europäischen Handelspolitik im Kontext geopolitischer Herausforderungen](https://julianhinz.com/research/perspektiven_handelspolitik/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Gabriel Felbermayr, Katrin Kamin, Sonali Chowdhry, Anna-Katharina Jacobs, Sandra Kill, Alexander Sandkamp. IfW Studie, May 2021
- [Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse](https://julianhinz.com/research/big_data_makro_analyse/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Martin Ademmer, Joscha Beckmann, Eckhardt Bode, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Manuel Funke, Philipp Hauber, Tobias Heidland, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Mareike Söder, Vincent Stamer, Ulrich Stolzenburg. Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik. No. 32, Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), Kiel. February 2021
- [Datenmonitor global — Wie die Corona-Krise die Länder des globalen Südens trifft](https://julianhinz.com/research/datenmonitor_global/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, Jakob Kutsch, Hendrik Mahlkow, Vincent Stamer. IfW Studie im Auftrag des Auswärtigen Amtes, December 2020
- [The Economic Costs of War by Other Means](https://julianhinz.com/research/economic_cost_of_war_by_other_means/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Sonali Chowdhry, Gabriel Felbermayr, Katrin Kamin, Anna-Katharina Jacobs, Hendrik Mahlkow. Kiel Policy Brief, No. 147, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel. October 2020
- [Bodenbildung in der Binnenwirtschaft, Kollaps des Welthandels](https://julianhinz.com/research/spezial_corona_update_2/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Gabriel Felbermayr, Hendrik Mahlkow, Vincent Stamer. Kiel Policy Briefs, Spezial Corona-Update 2, May 2020
- [Germany's economy in times of the Corona Lockdown](https://julianhinz.com/research/spezial_corona_update_1/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Gabriel Felbermayr, Hendrik Mahlkow. Kiel Policy Briefs, Spezial Corona-Update 1, April 2020
- [Russia’s and the EU’s Sanctions. Economic and Trade Effects, Compliance and the Way Forward](https://julianhinz.com/research/wifo_2017_sanctions/index.md) — Elisabeth Christen, Oliver Fritz, Julian Hinz, Franz Sinabell
- [Friendly fire: Zu den Handelsauswirkungen der Russlandsanktionen](https://julianhinz.com/research/ifw_box_friendly_fire/index.md). IfW-Box, No. 2017.17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. 2017
- [Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftssanktionen der EU und Russlands auf Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung in Österreich und der EU](https://julianhinz.com/research/wifo_2016_sanctions/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Elisabeth Christen, Oliver Fritz, Gerhard Streicher. WIFO Monographien, December 2016
- [Sanctions et embargos : quels impacts sur le commerce de la france vers la russie ?](https://julianhinz.com/research/cepii_sanctions_et_embargos/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Matthieu Crozet. La lettre du CEPII, April 2016

## Commentary and columns

- [A Critical-Inputs Playbook: What the Strait of Hormuz Tells Europe](https://julianhinz.com/research/critical_inputs_playbook/index.md). Intereconomics, 61(3), June 2026
- [Der EU-Binnenmarkt als Schutzschild: Wie Europa den Handelskrieg mit den USA abfedert](https://julianhinz.com/research/binnenmarkt_schutzschild/index.md) — Gabriel Felbermayr, Julian Hinz, Sebastian Krantz, Hendrik Mahlkow, Joschka Wanner. Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, 2026(1)
- [Trumps Zölle: Chaotische Entkopplung](https://julianhinz.com/research/trumps_zoelle_chaotische_entkopplung/index.md) — Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Hendrik Mahlkow. Wirtschaftsdienst (Leitartikel), 105(4), April 2025
- [Lieferketten: Geoökonomie im Roten Meer](https://julianhinz.com/research/lieferketten_rotes_meer/index.md) — Katrin Kamin, Julian Hinz. Wirtschaftsdienst, 104(2): 74. February 2024
- [Sanctions coalitions: Stronger together](https://julianhinz.com/research/voxeu_stronger_together/index.md) — Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, Joschka Wanner. VoxEU, October 2022
- [Engaging the Diaspora in Internationalizing Colombia's Economy](https://julianhinz.com/research/unido_colombian_diaspora/index.md) — Ricardo Hausmann, Julian Hinz, Ljubica Nedelkoska, AnnaLee Saxenian. UNIDO Industrial Analytics Platform, March 2022
- [Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions](https://julianhinz.com/research/voxeu_worth_the_pain/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Matthieu Crozet, Amrei Stammann, Joschka Wanner. VoxEU, March 2021
- [Venezuelans Deserve Refugee Status](https://julianhinz.com/research/project_syndicate_venezuelan_emigration/index.md) — Ricardo Hausmann, Julian Hinz. Project Syndicate, May 2018
- [Transpazifische Partnerschaft TPP: Totgeglaubte leben länger](https://julianhinz.com/research/wirtschaftsdienst_cptpp/index.md). Wirtschaftsdienst, December 2017
- [Collateral damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports](https://julianhinz.com/research/voxeu_collateral_damage/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Matthieu Crozet. VoxEU, July 2016

## Eternal working papers

- [The Role of the Diaspora in the Internationalization of the Colombian Economy](https://julianhinz.com/research/cid_colombian_diaspora/index.md) — Ljubica Nedelkoska, Andre Assumpcao, Ana Grisanti, Matte Hartog, Julian Hinz, Jessie Lu, Daniela Muhaj, Eric Protzer, Annalee Saxenian, Ricardo Hausmann. CID Faculty Working Paper, No. 397. May 2021
- [Separating the Wheat from the Chaff: Fast Estimation of GLMs with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects](https://julianhinz.com/research/glmhdfe_technical_note/index.md) — Julian Hinz, Alexander Hudletz, Joschka Wanner. Technical note, March 2019
- [Measuring Venezuelan Emigration with Twitter](https://julianhinz.com/research/venezuelan_emigration/index.md) — Ricardo Hausmann, Julian Hinz, Muhammed A. Yıldırım. Kiel Working Paper, 2106, May 2018

## Work in progress

- [Who Pays the Tariffs?](https://julianhinz.com/research/who_pays_the_tariffs/index.md) — Anna Vorwig, Hendrik Mahlkow, Aaron Lohmann, Julian Hinz
- [When dispersed teams are more successful: Theory and evidence from software](https://julianhinz.com/research/gravity_oss/index.md) — Gábor Békés, Julian Hinz, Miklós Koren, Aaron Lohmann
- [Bugs 🐞](https://julianhinz.com/research/bugs/index.md) — Gábor Békés, Julian Hinz, Miklós Koren
- [Firm-level Gravity with Fixed Effects](https://julianhinz.com/research/firm_level_gravity/index.md) — Uğur Aytun, Julian Hinz, Cem Özgüzel, Joschka Wanner
- [The View from Space: Theory-based Time-varying Distances in the Gravity Model](https://julianhinz.com/research/distances/index.md). Work in progress
- [Frictions to intranational investment](https://julianhinz.com/research/intranational_investment/index.md) — Inga Heiland, Julian Hinz
- [Frictions impede assortative matching in a global market for talent](https://julianhinz.com/research/market_for_talent/index.md) — Keith Head, Julian Hinz