The Geographical Incidence of Trade Wars: Regional Outcomes across Europe and the Role of the Single Market

We quantify how global trade wars affect regions across Europe and how the EU Single Market mitigates these shocks. Using a Baqaee–Farhi–type network model with regional labor mobility and a new Regionalized Inter-Country Input–Output (REICIO) table, we embed 288 European NUTS2 regions into a global 77-country system. We compare outcomes under two baselines—Europe integrated versus fragmented—to isolate the insurance value of the Single Market. Preliminary results show that integration substantially reduces both average losses and regional dispersion by enabling substitution along intra-EU value chains.

Presentations

• 2025-10-11
  "The Geographical Incidence of Trade Wars: Regional Outcomes across Europe and the Role of the Single Market" — World Trade Forum at EUI — Florence.   Slides