# The Cost of Sanctions: Estimating Lost Trade with Gravity

- URL: https://julianhinz.com/research/cost_of_sanctions/
- Type: Book chapter
- Authors: Julian Hinz
- Publication: In Disrupted Economic Relationships, CESifo Seminar Series at MIT Press, V. Nitsch and T. Besedeš eds. 2019
- Book: Disrupted Economic Relationships (eds. Volker Nitsch and Tibor Besedeš), CESifo Seminar Series at MIT Press
- Date: 2019-05-01
- Topics: gravity models, sanctions
- Paper: https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/disrupted-economic-relationships
- PDF: https://julianhinz.com/research/cost_of_sanctions/cost_of_sanctions_author_version.pdf
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/11703.003.0006
- Google Scholar citations: 33 (https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=5453856864243936741,4011159130224977674&as_sdt=5)

## Abstract

Economic sanctions are a frequently used tool of foreign policy. Constraining trade flows towards or from the target country is supposed to coerce its government into changing certain policies. However, sanctions constitute an obstacle to trade, thereby affecting flows of all countries, including those of sanctioning countries themselves. I gauge the global impact of three recent sanctions regimes using a structural gravity framework and quantify the “lost trade” in a general equilibrium counterfactual exercise. Each of the episodes, sanctions against Iran, Russia and Myanmar, are instructive in their own way, due to the different nature of bilateral trade and severity of measures applied.

## Links

- [Author version (October 2017; also Kiel Working Paper 2093)](https://julianhinz.com/research/cost_of_sanctions/cost_of_sanctions_author_version.pdf)

## Earlier versions

- Kiel Working Paper, 2093, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel (November 2017): https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/the-cost-of-sanctions-estimating-lost-trade-with-gravity-8837/

## Cite (BibTeX)

```bibtex
@incollection{cost_of_sanctions_2019,
  title = {The Cost of Sanctions: Estimating Lost Trade with Gravity},
  author = {Julian Hinz},
  booktitle = {Disrupted Economic Relationships: Disasters, Sanctions, Dissolutions},
  editor = {Tibor Besedeš and Volker Nitsch},
  series = {CESifo Seminar Series},
  publisher = {MIT Press},
  address = {Cambridge, MA},
  pages = {77--102},
  year = {2019},
  doi = {10.7551/mitpress/11703.003.0006}
}
```