# Competing with China in Third Markets

- URL: https://julianhinz.com/research/competing_with_china_third_markets/
- Type: Policy paper
- Authors: Sonali Chowdhry, Katharina Erhardt, Julian Hinz
- Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 213. June 2026
- Date: 2026-06-18
- Topics: trade policy, industrial policy, China, EU
- Paper: https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/competing-with-china-in-third-markets-19891/
- Google Scholar citations: 5 (https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=929187480898470907&as_sdt=5)

## Summary

China's export growth is increasingly concentrated in advanced manufacturing sectors, but the loss of European market shares in third markets is not explained by Chinese competition alone. Germany, France, and other European economies have also lost ground to competitors outside China in many markets.

The brief argues against broad tariffs as the default response to Chinese competition. Instead, durable competitiveness requires investment in innovation and new technology. Where sectoral safeguards are considered, they should be justified by strategic or security concerns or clear evidence of unfair trade practices, and temporary protection should include sunset clauses.

## Presentations

- 2026-11-19: "China's Export Surge: How Can Europe Address Rising Competition from China?", Global China Conversations #52, Kiel Institute, online
- 2026-06-30: "Competing with China in Third Markets", 3rd Kiel-Göttingen-CEPR Conference “China in the Global Economy”, Berlin. Slides: https://jhi.nz/260630_CC_CWC
- 2026-06-24: "Der zweite China-Schock (panel)", Greater China Day, IHK Düsseldorf

## Media coverage

- 2026-08-23: Welt am Sonntag: Der Zorn aus dem Hinterzimmer
- 2026-07-20: Business Insider: 400.000 Industriejobs gingen verloren - warum Deutschland dem China-Druck dennoch besser standhält als erwartet (https://www.businessinsider.de/wirtschaft/china-schock-2-0-droht-so-gut-schlaegt-sich-die-deutsche-industrie/)
- 2026-07-18: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: Die Angst vor dem chinesischen Drachen
- 2026-06-23: Wirtschaftswoche: China und Deutschland: "Es ist eine schlechte Idee, wenn man sich dreimal ins Knie schießt" (Interview) (https://www.wiwo.de/politik/deutschland/china-und-deutschland-es-ist-eine-schlechte-idee-wenn-man-sich-dreimal-ins-knie-schiesst/100234888.html)
- 2026-06-19: Handelsblatt: Billigimporte: Deutschlands China-Schock laut Studie größtenteils hausgemacht (https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/billigimporte-deutschlands-china-schock-laut-studie-groesstenteils-hausgemacht/100234376.html)
- 2026-06-18: RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland: EU prüft Zölle und neue Schutzinstrumente gegen China (https://www.kn-online.de/politik/eu-gipfel-mit-zoellen-und-neuen-instrumenten-chinas-dumping-produkte-stoppen-26B3ELBBDJFPFMVW2SKY72R47A.html)

## Cite (BibTeX)

```bibtex
@techreport{competing_with_china_third_markets_2026,
  title = {Competing with China in Third Markets},
  author = {Sonali Chowdhry and Katharina Erhardt and Julian Hinz},
  institution = {Kiel Institute for the World Economy},
  type = {Kiel Policy Brief},
  number = {213},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/competing-with-china-in-third-markets-19891/}
}
```