# Julian Hinz > Empirical economist at Bielefeld University studying international trade, > sanctions, migration, and political economy. Julian Hinz is a professor at Bielefeld University and a research affiliate at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. His research uses large-scale data and quantitative trade models to study how political decisions shape international economic relationships. ## Published Papers - [Trade Sanctions](/research/trade_sanctions/): Forthcoming in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Oxford University Press - [Shooting down trade: Firm-level effects of embargoes](/research/shooting_down_trade/): Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Volume 231: 106821, March 2025 Citations: 13. - [Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes](/research/sanctions_coalitions/): Economic Policy, 39 (118): 471–512, April 2024 Citations: 65. - [The Ties that Bind: Geopolitical Motivations for Economic Integration](/research/geopolitical_motivations/): Review of World Economics, 159 (1): 51–100, February 2023 Citations: 33. - [Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia](/research/prices_in_russia/): Journal of International Economics, 137: 103581, July 2022 Citations: 96. - [Après-ski: The Spread of Coronavirus from Ischgl through Germany](/research/coronavirus_from_ischgl/): German Economic Review, 22 (4): 415–446, November 2021 Citations: 76. - [The Role of the Diaspora in the Internationalization of the Colombian Economy](/research/cid_colombian_diaspora/): CID Faculty Working Paper, No. 397. May 2021 - [Worth the pain? Firms' exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions](/research/worth_the_pain/): European Economic Review, 134: 103683, January 2021 Citations: 202. - [Critically Important: The Heterogeneous Effect of Diplomatic Tensions on Trade](/research/critically_important/): Review of Industrial Organization, 57 (2): 309–331, July 2020 Citations: 16. - [Friendly Fire: The Trade Impact of the Russia Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions](/research/friendly_fire/): Economic Policy, 35 (101): 97–146, May 2020 Citations: 625. ## Book Chapters - [What if? The Effects of a Hard Decoupling from China on the German Economy](/research/what_if_china/): in "Paris Report 2: Europe's Economic Security", Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (eds), CEPR Press, Paris & London. May 2024 Citations: 35. - [The Cost of Sanctions: Estimating Lost Trade with Gravity](/research/cost_of_sanctions/): In Disrupted Economic Relationships, CESifo Seminar Series at MIT Press, V. Nitsch and T. Besedeš eds. 2019 Citations: 31. ## Policy Papers - [Competing with China in Third Markets](/research/competing_with_china_third_markets/): Kiel Policy Brief, No. 213. June 2026 - [The Ukraine Support Tariff: How Europe Can Support Ukraine and Weaken Russia](/research/ukraine_support_tariff/): Kiel Policy Brief, No. 212. June 2026 - [The Cost of Closing the Strait of Hormuz: Energy Bottlenecks and Global Food Security](/research/cost_of_closing_hormuz/): Kiel Policy Brief, No. 206. March 2026 - [America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs?](/research/americas_own_goal/): Kiel Policy Brief, No. 201. January 2026 - [The EU–India Trade Deal: Strategic Diversification in an Era of Uncertainty](/research/eu_india_trade_deal/): Kiel Policy Brief, No. 202. January 2026 - [Prinzipien für eine europäische Industrie- und Handelspolitik für das geoökonomische Zeitalter](/research/prinzipien_geoekonomische_industriepolitik/): Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 26(3): 290–298, September 2025 - [An Alliance for Open Trade: How to Counter Trump's Tariffs](/research/alliance_for_open_trade/): Kiel Policy Brief, No. 194. July 2025 - [Diversifizieren, nicht reagieren: Europas neuer Weg in der Handelspolitik](/research/diversifizieren_nicht_reagieren/): WIFO Research Briefs, 5/2025. April 2025 - [Dealing with Global Economic Challenges: An Agenda for the New Federal Government](/research/global_economic_challenges_agenda/): Kiel Policy Brief, No. 182. February 2025 - [Perspektiven einer erfolgreichen europäischen Handelspolitik im Kontext geopolitischer Herausforderungen](/research/perspektiven_handelspolitik/): IfW Studie, May 2021 - [Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse](/research/big_data_makro_analyse/): Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik. No. 32, Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), Kiel. February 2021 - [Datenmonitor global — Wie die Corona-Krise die Länder des globalen Südens trifft](/research/datenmonitor_global/): IfW Studie im Auftrag des Auswärtigen Amtes, December 2020 - [The Economic Costs of War by Other Means](/research/economic_cost_of_war_by_other_means/): Kiel Policy Brief, No. 147, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel. October 2020 - [Bodenbildung in der Binnenwirtschaft, Kollaps des Welthandels](/research/spezial_corona_update_2/): Kiel Policy Briefs, Spezial Corona-Update 2, May 2020 - [Germany's economy in times of the Corona Lockdown](/research/spezial_corona_update_1/): Kiel Policy Briefs, Spezial Corona-Update 1, April 2020 - [Russia’s and the EU’s Sanctions. Economic and Trade Effects, Compliance and the Way Forward](/research/wifo_2017_sanctions/): - [Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftssanktionen der EU und Russlands auf Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung in Österreich und der EU](/research/wifo_2016_sanctions/): WIFO Monographien, December 2016 - [Sanctions et embargos : quels impacts sur le commerce de la france vers la russie ?](/research/cepii_sanctions_et_embargos/): La lettre du CEPII, April 2016 ## Working Papers - [Navigating Shocks: The Ripple Effects of Shipping Route Closures](/research/navigating_shocks/): Banque de France Working Paper, 1057, August 2026 - [PLAID: Product-Level AI-Derived Indicators Database for International Trade](/research/plaid/): Kiel Working Paper, 2318, April 2026 - [Vibe Coding Kills Open Source](/research/vibe_coding_kills_open_source/): arXiv working paper arXiv:2601.15494, January 2026 - [Tariffs Hit Differently: The Regional Impact of US Tariffs across Europe and the Role of the Single Market](/research/tariffs_hit_differently/): Kiel Working Papers, 2309, December 2025. Revise and resubmit at the Journal of Economic Geography - [To Russia with Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support](/research/sanctions_and_russian_elections/): CESifo Working Paper No. 11033, March 2024. Revise and resubmit at the Journal of the European Economic Association - [Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections](/research/sanctions_and_french_elections/): Kiel Working Papers, 2246, April 2023 - [Exchange Rate Pass-Around](/research/exchange_rate_pass-around/): Kiel Working Papers, 2247, April 2023. Revise and resubmit at the International Economic Review ## Work in Progress - [Who Pays the Tariffs?](/research/who_pays_the_tariffs/) - [When dispersed teams are more successful: Theory and evidence from software](/research/gravity_oss/) - [Bugs 🐞](/research/bugs/) - [Firm-level Gravity with Fixed Effects](/research/firm_level_gravity/) - [The View from Space: Theory-based Time-varying Distances in the Gravity Model](/research/distances/) - [State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade](/research/persistent_zeros/) - [Frictions to intranational investment](/research/intranational_investment/) - [Separating the Wheat from the Chaff: Fast Estimation of GLMs with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects](/research/glmhdfe_technical_note/) - [Frictions impede assortative matching in a global market for talent](/research/market_for_talent/) - [Measuring Venezuelan Emigration with Twitter](/research/venezuelan_emigration/) ## Commentary - [A Critical-Inputs Playbook: What the Strait of Hormuz Tells Europe](/research/critical_inputs_playbook/): Intereconomics, 61(3), June 2026 - [Der EU-Binnenmarkt als Schutzschild: Wie Europa den Handelskrieg mit den USA abfedert](/research/binnenmarkt_schutzschild/): Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, 2026(1) - [Trumps Zölle: Chaotische Entkopplung](/research/trumps_zoelle_chaotische_entkopplung/): Wirtschaftsdienst (Leitartikel), 105(4), April 2025 - [Sanctions coalitions: Stronger together](/research/voxeu_stronger_together/): VoxEU, October 2022 - [Engaging the Diaspora in Internationalizing Colombia's Economy](/research/unido_colombian_diaspora/): UNIDO Industrial Analytics Platform, March 2022 - [Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions](/research/voxeu_worth_the_pain/): VoxEU, March 2021 - [Venezuelans Deserve Refugee Status](/research/project_syndicate_venezuelan_emigration/): Project Syndicate, May 2018 - [Transpazifische Partnerschaft TPP: Totgeglaubte leben länger](/research/wirtschaftsdienst_cptpp/): Wirtschaftsdienst, December 2017 - [Collateral damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports](/research/voxeu_collateral_damage/): VoxEU, July 2016 ## Data & Code - [PLAID](/data-code/plaid/): An open database of product-level indicators for international trade, covering six indicators across ~5,400 HS 6-digit … - [luhmann.sty](/data-code/luhmann.sty/): LaTeX Beamer style for academic presentations built on minimalist design. - [mies.sty](/data-code/mies.sty/): A clean and typographic LaTeX article style inspired by Mies van der Rohe. Built for working papers and academic … - [OSSIO](/data-code/ossio/): Open Source Software Input Output Tables — global input-output tables of open-source software flows between countries, … - [KITE](/data-code/kite/): The KITE (Kiel Institute Trade Policy Evaluation) model provides a tool for simulating and estimating various types of … - [Gravity Distances](/data-code/gravity_distances/): Gravity-consistent aggregate distances between countries and other geographical entities - [glmhdfe](/data-code/glmhdfe/): R package that implements a fast estimation procedure of generalized linear models with high dimensional fixed effects. … - [gravity.distances](/data-code/gravity.distances/): R package that provides distances between geographic entities — such as countries, US states or Canadian provinces — … ## Optional ## Talks - Tariffs Hit Differently: The Regional Impact of US Tariffs across Europe and the Role of the Single Market — Panel “Trade and Trade Wars”, World Trade Forum 2026, University of Bern, September 2026 - Competing with China in Third Markets — 3rd Kiel-Göttingen-CEPR Conference “China in the Global Economy”, Berlin, June 2026 - Discussion of “China tariffs” — by Antràs & Presbitero — 3rd Kiel-Göttingen-CEPR Conference “China in the Global Economy”, Berlin, June 2026 - Navigating Shocks: The Ripple Effects of Shipping Route Closures — Research Seminar, RWTH Aachen, June 2026 - To Russia With Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support — VfS Ausschuss Außenwirtschaft, Heidelberg, May 2026 ## Teaching - [Teaching](/teaching/): Graduate and undergraduate courses in international trade, data science, statistics, and economics.