# Julian Hinz > Empirical economist at Bielefeld University studying international trade, > sanctions, migration, and political economy. Julian Hinz is a professor at Bielefeld University and a research affiliate at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. His research uses large-scale data and quantitative trade models to study how political decisions shape international economic relationships. ## Published Papers ### Trade Sanctions URL: /research/trade_sanctions/ Publication: Forthcoming in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Oxford University Press Authors: Julian Hinz, Matthieu Crozet, Patrik Šváb Subjects: Trade sanctions, Russia, input-output linkages, firm-level trade, coalition design Number of exported products by French firms following the imposition of sanctions against Russia in 2022. We review the economics of trade sanctions and provide new macro and micro evidence with the Russia 2014 and 2022 episodes as central case studies. On the macro side, we calibrate a multi-country, multi-sector general-equilibrium trade model with input–output linkages to quantify welfare effects under alternative coalition and intensity scenarios. Relative to 2014, the 2022 measures … ### Shooting down trade: Firm-level effects of embargoes URL: /research/shooting_down_trade/ Publication: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Volume 231: 106821, March 2025 Authors: Uğur Aytun, Julian Hinz, Cem Özgüzel Subjects: Embargo, Russia, Trade Sanctions, Firm-Level Analysis, Trade Redirection, Employment Effects Citations: 13 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=15286138517973526494,8894364877412500569&as_sdt=5) Imposition and lifting effect of the embargo. In November 2015, Turkey’s unexpected downing of a Russian military jet in Syria prompted Russia to impose a swift and comprehensive embargo on specific Turkish exports. This study leverages this quasi-natural experiment to estimate both the immediate and longer-term effects of the imposition and subsequent lifting of these sanctions. Utilizing administrative data encompassing all Turkish exporters, we first examine the impact on trade at the firm … ### Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes URL: /research/sanctions_coalitions/ Publication: Economic Policy, 39 (118): 471–512, April 2024 Authors: Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, Joschka Wanner Subjects: Embargo, Russia, Sanctions, Input-Output Linkages, Bayesian bootstrap Citations: 65 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=10037860346738639008,5039095324099844187&as_sdt=5) Incurred and imposed welfare costs of the 2014 Russia sanctions. This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition setups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanctions senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners; (iii) investigate “optimal” coalitions that maximise payoff from sanctions; (iv) provide bounds for … ### The Ties that Bind: Geopolitical Motivations for Economic Integration URL: /research/geopolitical_motivations/ Publication: Review of World Economics, 159 (1): 51–100, February 2023 Authors: Julian Hinz Subjects: geopolitics "trade agreements" "gravity equation" "event data" Citations: 33 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=13111493314528053209,10849255105984393492,4527205872069333820&as_sdt=5) Evolution of the mean of Importance of bilateral relations of big (left) and small (b) countries in future agreement with an EIA partner country and non-partner countries around trade deal at t = 0. Economic determinants of economic integration agreements have received ample attention in the economic literature. Political motivations for such agreements have been mostly studied as functions of domestic politics or in the context of conflict. In this paper the author suggests a different … ### Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia URL: /research/prices_in_russia/ Publication: Journal of International Economics, 137: 103581, July 2022 Authors: Julian Hinz, Evgenii Monastyrenko Subjects: Embargo, Russia, Sanctions, Input-Output Linkages Citations: 96 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=1000750321915081880,11706077639892239121&as_sdt=5) Evolution of average prices of embargoed and non-embargoed products. In August 2014, the Russian Federation implemented an embargo on select food and agricultural imports from Western countries in response to previously imposed economic sanctions. In this paper we quantify the effect of this embargo on consumer prices and welfare in Russia. We provide evidence for the direct effect on monthly consumer prices with a difference-in-differences approach. The embargo caused prices of embargoed … ### Après-ski: The Spread of Coronavirus from Ischgl through Germany URL: /research/coronavirus_from_ischgl/ Publication: German Economic Review, 22 (4): 415–446, November 2021 Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, Julian Hinz, Sonali Chowdhry Subjects: [Coronavirus super-spreaders Germany spatial diffusion negative binomial model tourism] Citations: 76 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=16776257571092204012&as_sdt=5) Observed vs. counterfactual confirmed cases on May 9, 2020. The Austrian ski resort of Ischgl is commonly claimed to be ground zero for the diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus across Germany. Drawing on data for 401 German counties, we find that conditional on geographical latitude and testing behavior by health authorities, road distance to Ischgl is indeed an important predictor of infection cases, but — in line with expectations — not of fatality rates. Were all German counties … ### The Role of the Diaspora in the Internationalization of the Colombian Economy URL: /research/cid_colombian_diaspora/ Publication: CID Faculty Working Paper, No. 397. May 2021 Authors: Ljubica Nedelkoska, Andre Assumpcao, Ana Grisanti, Matte Hartog, Julian Hinz, Jessie Lu, Daniela Muhaj, Eric Protzer, Annalee Saxenian, Ricardo Hausmann Subjects: migration diaspora "economic development" We studied the geography as well as the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of 1.7 million members of the global Colombian diaspora (34% of the total estimated Colombian diaspora) using census and survey data from major host countries, and 3.5 million Twitter users located around the world presumed to be of Colombian origin. We also studied the locations and industries of Colombian senior managers and directors outside Colombia, using a global database of over 400 million companies. … ### Worth the pain? Firms' exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions URL: /research/worth_the_pain/ Publication: European Economic Review, 134: 103683, January 2021 Authors: Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz, Amrei Stammann, Joschka Wanner Subjects: [Sanctions trade foreign policy extensive margin firm behaviour] Citations: 202 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=6485060825913395886,13941251992968949173&as_sdt=5) Evolution of number of firms in face of sanctions. How do exporting firms react to sanctions? Specifically, which firms are willing — or capable — to serve the market of a sanctioned country? We investigate this question for four sanctions episodes using monthly data on the universe of French exporting firms. We draw on recent econometric advances in the estimation of dynamic fixed effects binary choice models. We find that the introduction of new sanctions in Iran and Russia … ### Critically Important: The Heterogeneous Effect of Diplomatic Tensions on Trade URL: /research/critically_important/ Publication: Review of Industrial Organization, 57 (2): 309–331, July 2020 Authors: Julian Hinz, Elsa Leromain Subjects: Trade frictions Political Relations Dependence Input Sourcing Citations: 16 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=17653760115738746455,4768665747275249052,14646251552753457247&as_sdt=5) Impact of diplomatic tensions on UK - Russia trade. Russian exports to UK and EU (left), Russian exports to UK by select HS sections (right). With global value chains interlocking today’s economies, what is the impact of diplomatic tensions on international trade? We exploit variation in monthly data on imports, a measure of imported input use in the domestic economy, and the incidence of bilateral diplomatic tensions to show that their impact on trade is heterogeneous across countries and … ### Friendly Fire: The Trade Impact of the Russia Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions URL: /research/friendly_fire/ Publication: Economic Policy, 35 (101): 97–146, May 2020 Authors: Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz Subjects: Sanctions Trade "Foreign policy" Boycott Embargo "Trade finance" Citations: 625 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=1365770739491390927,6023773083010323806,6154217373336881937,3184487968675086161,16044777043532716742,9256532853425275291&as_sdt=5) Monthly relative losses of exports to Russia. Economic sanctions are a frequently used instrument of foreign policy. In a diplomatic conflict they aim to elicit a change in the policies of a foreign government by damaging their economy. Sanctions, however, are also likely to affect the sanctioning country. This paper evaluates these costs, in terms of export losses, for the diplomatic crisis between the Russian Federation and 37 countries over the conflict in Ukraine that started in 2014. We … ## Book Chapters ### What if? The Effects of a Hard Decoupling from China on the German Economy URL: /research/what_if_china/ Publication: in "Paris Report 2: Europe's Economic Security", Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (eds), CEPR Press, Paris & London. May 2024 Authors: David Baqaee, Julian Hinz, Benjamin Moll, Moritz Schularick, Feodora Teti, Joschka Wanner, Sihwan Yang Subjects: [China decoupling de-risking Germany] Citations: 35 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=11441136330331720651&as_sdt=5) Cold turkey decoupling vs. gradual decoupling vs. gradual de-risking. How would the German economy cope with a hard economic decoupling from China? We study a scenario where the global economy fragments into three distinct blocs: the G7 economies and their allies, China and her allies, as well as neutral countries. German trade with China would have to be entirely rerouted to countries within the “Western” block and neutral countries. We quantify the costs of such a worst-case … ### The Cost of Sanctions: Estimating Lost Trade with Gravity URL: /research/cost_of_sanctions/ Publication: In Disrupted Economic Relationships, CESifo Seminar Series at MIT Press, V. Nitsch and T. Besedeš eds. 2019 Authors: Julian Hinz Citations: 31 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=5453856864243936741,4011159130224977674&as_sdt=5) Economic sanctions are a frequently used tool of foreign policy. Constraining trade flows towards or from the target country is supposed to coerce its government into changing certain policies. However, sanctions constitute an obstacle to trade, thereby affecting flows of all countries, including those of sanctioning countries themselves. I gauge the global impact of three recent sanctions regimes using a structural gravity framework and quantify the “lost trade” in a general equilibrium … ## Policy Papers ### Competing with China in Third Markets URL: /research/competing_with_china_third_markets/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 213. June 2026 Authors: Sonali Chowdhry, Katharina Erhardt, Julian Hinz China’s export growth is increasingly concentrated in advanced manufacturing sectors, but the loss of European market shares in third markets is not explained by Chinese competition alone. Germany, France, and other European economies have also lost ground to competitors outside China in many markets. The brief argues against broad tariffs as the default response to Chinese competition. Instead, durable competitiveness requires investment in innovation and new technology. Where sectoral … ### The Ukraine Support Tariff: How Europe Can Support Ukraine and Weaken Russia URL: /research/ukraine_support_tariff/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 212. June 2026 Authors: Julian Hinz, Moritz Schularick A Ukraine Support Tariff on remaining EU–Russia trade would raise revenue for Ukraine while increasing pressure on Russia. The brief studies a combined import tariff and export-side levy on EU–Russia trade and evaluates revenue and welfare effects in partial and general equilibrium. At moderate tariff rates of 30–50%, the proposal could generate revenue that exceeds annual proceeds from frozen Russian asset interest income. General equilibrium simulations show asymmetric … ### The Cost of Closing the Strait of Hormuz: Energy Bottlenecks and Global Food Security URL: /research/cost_of_closing_hormuz/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 206. March 2026 Authors: Julian Hinz, Hendrik Mahlkow, Robin Sogalla, Gerald Willmann The brief analyzes a closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a global energy bottleneck that propagates through chemicals, fertilizer production, and food prices. Because the channel carries a large share of global oil and liquefied natural gas, the shock creates especially severe losses for energy- and fertilizer-import-dependent developing countries. Standard trade models understate these effects when they miss the bottleneck mechanism. The distributional burden is highly uneven: aggregate global … ### America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? URL: /research/americas_own_goal/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 201. January 2026 Authors: Anna Vorwig, Hendrik Mahlkow, Aaron Lohmann, Julian Hinz India exports to US: log(unit value) The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers. Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $4 trillion, we find near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices. US customs revenue surged by approximately $200 billion in 2025—a tax paid almost entirely … ### The EU–India Trade Deal: Strategic Diversification in an Era of Uncertainty URL: /research/eu_india_trade_deal/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 202. January 2026 Authors: Julian Hinz, Rolf J. Langhammer, Hendrik Mahlkow, Vasundhara Thakur The brief studies an EU–India free trade agreement as a strategic diversification tool in a more uncertain trade environment. Simulations point to mutual welfare gains, substantially higher bilateral trade, and a meaningful reallocation of trade away from China. For India, the agreement provides a hedge against US tariff pressure. For the EU, it supports de-risking and signals a commitment to open trade. The structural benefits are framed as a long-term partnership rather than a temporary … ### Prinzipien für eine europäische Industrie- und Handelspolitik für das geoökonomische Zeitalter URL: /research/prinzipien_geoekonomische_industriepolitik/ Publication: Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 26(3): 290–298, September 2025 Authors: Julian Hinz, Irene Iodice, Moritz Schularick ### An Alliance for Open Trade: How to Counter Trump's Tariffs URL: /research/alliance_for_open_trade/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 194. July 2025 Authors: Keith Head, Julian Hinz, Isabelle Méjean, Emanuel Ornelas, Moritz Schularick The Trump administration’s tariffs hit traditional trading partners including the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and South Korea. Unilateral retaliation by individual countries is unlikely to be effective against an economy of the size of the United States. The brief proposes that affected nations instead form a strategic coalition — an alliance for open trade — that implements WTO-compliant counter-tariffs targeting politically sensitive U.S. sectors such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and … ### Diversifizieren, nicht reagieren: Europas neuer Weg in der Handelspolitik URL: /research/diversifizieren_nicht_reagieren/ Publication: WIFO Research Briefs, 5/2025. April 2025 Authors: Hendrik Mahlkow, Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz Die neue Zollpolitik der USA konfrontiert die EU mit wachsender handelspolitischer Unsicherheit. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysiert dieser Research Brief drei Szenarien, mit denen die EU auf protektionistische Tendenzen reagieren kann: 1. ein sektorales Handelsabkommen mit den USA, 2. die Vertiefung bestehender Freihandelsabkommen und 3. der Abschluss neuer Freihandelsabkommen mit Partnern wie Indien, Australien oder dem Mercosur. Basierend auf Simulationen mit dem KITE-Modell zeigt sich: Während … ### Dealing with Global Economic Challenges: An Agenda for the New Federal Government URL: /research/global_economic_challenges_agenda/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 182. February 2025 Authors: Frank Bickenbach, Eckhardt Bode, Dirk Dohse, Holger Görg, Tobias Heidland, Julian Hinz, Rolf J. Langhammer, Wan-Hsin Liu, Wilfried Rickels, Moritz Schularick An agenda for the new German federal government on the major global economic challenges. Germany must once again see itself as an important part of and a leading nation within the EU: completing the single market for digital products, financial services, and energy is the precondition for competing with the USA and China. Vis-à-vis China, the EU should reject compromise solutions such as minimum prices for electric vehicles and instead demand a reduction of unfair subsidies and better protection … ### Perspektiven einer erfolgreichen europäischen Handelspolitik im Kontext geopolitischer Herausforderungen URL: /research/perspektiven_handelspolitik/ Publication: IfW Studie, May 2021 Authors: Julian Hinz, Gabriel Felbermayr, Katrin Kamin, Sonali Chowdhry, Anna-Katharina Jacobs, Sandra Kill, Alexander Sandkamp ### Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse URL: /research/big_data_makro_analyse/ Publication: Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik. No. 32, Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), Kiel. February 2021 Authors: Julian Hinz, Martin Ademmer, Joscha Beckmann, Eckhardt Bode, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Manuel Funke, Philipp Hauber, Tobias Heidland, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Mareike Söder, Vincent Stamer, Ulrich Stolzenburg ### Datenmonitor global — Wie die Corona-Krise die Länder des globalen Südens trifft URL: /research/datenmonitor_global/ Publication: IfW Studie im Auftrag des Auswärtigen Amtes, December 2020 Authors: Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, Jakob Kutsch, Hendrik Mahlkow, Vincent Stamer ### The Economic Costs of War by Other Means URL: /research/economic_cost_of_war_by_other_means/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 147, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel. October 2020 Authors: Julian Hinz, Sonali Chowdhry, Gabriel Felbermayr, Katrin Kamin, Anna-Katharina Jacobs, Hendrik Mahlkow ### Bodenbildung in der Binnenwirtschaft, Kollaps des Welthandels URL: /research/spezial_corona_update_2/ Publication: Kiel Policy Briefs, Spezial Corona-Update 2, May 2020 Authors: Julian Hinz, Gabriel Felbermayr, Hendrik Mahlkow, Vincent Stamer ### Germany's economy in times of the Corona Lockdown URL: /research/spezial_corona_update_1/ Publication: Kiel Policy Briefs, Spezial Corona-Update 1, April 2020 Authors: Julian Hinz, Gabriel Felbermayr, Hendrik Mahlkow ### Russia’s and the EU’s Sanctions. Economic and Trade Effects, Compliance and the Way Forward URL: /research/wifo_2017_sanctions/ Authors: Elisabeth Christen, Oliver Fritz, Julian Hinz, Franz Sinabell ### Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftssanktionen der EU und Russlands auf Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung in Österreich und der EU URL: /research/wifo_2016_sanctions/ Publication: WIFO Monographien, December 2016 Authors: Julian Hinz, Elisabeth Christen, Oliver Fritz, Gerhard Streicher ### Sanctions et embargos : quels impacts sur le commerce de la france vers la russie ? URL: /research/cepii_sanctions_et_embargos/ Publication: La lettre du CEPII, April 2016 Authors: Julian Hinz, Matthieu Crozet ## Working Papers ### Navigating Shocks: The Ripple Effects of Shipping Route Closures URL: /research/navigating_shocks/ Status: Banque de France Working Paper, 1057, August 2026 Authors: Carsten Philipp Brockhaus, Julian Hinz, Charles Serfaty Subjects: [shipping routes chokepoint disruptions Red Sea crisis endogenous trade costs monopoly tolls] Rerouting of global shipping under a Red Sea closure: traffic shifts from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope. Who bears the cost when a maritime chokepoint is disrupted? Combining ship-level AIS trajectories, port-call logs, freight indices, customs data and Turkish shipment-level data, we document the trade effects of the 2023 Red Sea crisis: seaborne trade between affected country pairs fell, rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, and recovered within months as freight costs surged, … ### PLAID: Product-Level AI-Derived Indicators Database for International Trade URL: /research/plaid/ Status: Kiel Working Paper, 2318, April 2026 Authors: Carsten Brockhaus, Julian Hinz, Irene Iodice Subjects: Trade Product Classification LLM Gravity HS-6 level Rauch classifications reveal substantial heterogeneity within individual SITC headings. Empirical trade research routinely relies on product-level indicators – whether goods are homogeneous or differentiated, perishable or durable, hazardous or benign – but existing classifications were built for older nomenclatures and have not kept pace with modern HS data. Mapping them forward through concordance tables introduces measurement error that is difficult to quantify and … ### Vibe Coding Kills Open Source URL: /research/vibe_coding_kills_open_source/ Status: arXiv working paper arXiv:2601.15494, January 2026 Authors: Miklós Koren, Gábor Békés, Julian Hinz, Aaron Lohmann Tailwind usage grows while engagement falls. Generative AI is changing how software is produced and used. In vibe coding, an AI agent builds software by selecting and assembling open-source software (OSS), often without users directly reading documentation, reporting bugs, or otherwise engaging with maintainers. We study the equilibrium effects of vibe coding on the OSS ecosystem. We develop a model with endogenous entry and heterogeneous project quality in which OSS is a scalable input into … ### Tariffs Hit Differently: The Regional Impact of US Tariffs across Europe and the Role of the Single Market URL: /research/tariffs_hit_differently/ Status: Kiel Working Papers, 2309, December 2025. Revise and resubmit at the Journal of Economic Geography Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, Julian Hinz, Sebastian Krantz, Hendrik Mahlkow, Joschka Wanner Subjects: [trade policy regional economics single market] Changes in labor location under U.S. tariff shocks. We study how recent U.S. tariffs ripple through European regions and how the EU Single Market cushions these shocks. Using a regionalized inter-country input–output framework with labor mobility, we embed 288 European NUTS2 regions in a global production network and quantify the heterogeneous effects of U.S. import protection. Our counterfactuals compare outcomes under an integrated versus a fragmented Europe. Integration allows firms and … ### To Russia with Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support URL: /research/sanctions_and_russian_elections/ Status: CESifo Working Paper No. 11033, March 2024. Revise and resubmit at the Journal of the European Economic Association Authors: Robert Gold, Julian Hinz, Michele Valsecchi Subjects: Sanctions, voting behavior, gravity estimation, rally-around-the-flag Sanctions impact on regional exports. Do economic sanctions affect internal support of sanctioned countries’ governments? To answer this question, we focus on the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and identify their effect on voting behavior in both presidential and parliamentary elections. On the economic side, the sanctions significantly hurt Russia’s foreign trade — with regional variance. We use trade losses caused by the sanctions as measure for regional sanctions exposure. For … ### Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections URL: /research/sanctions_and_french_elections/ Status: Kiel Working Papers, 2246, April 2023 Authors: Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz Subjects: Sanctions, Elections, Embargo, Russia, France Change in vote share for Le Pen and exports of embargoed products by destination. Sanctions are meant to coerce political adversaries through economic measures. However, evidence for their effectiveness is scarce. In this paper we assess the impact of sanctions on a democracy — France — by studying the electoral consequences of the sanctions and countersanctions imposed between Russia and Western countries. Contrary to most of the existing literature we find clear evidence for exposure to the … ### Exchange Rate Pass-Around URL: /research/exchange_rate_pass-around/ Status: Kiel Working Papers, 2247, April 2023. Revise and resubmit at the International Economic Review Authors: Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz, Federico Trionfetti Subjects: Exchange rate pass-through, International trade, Pricing-to-market Exchange rate pass-around and pass-through over time. In January 2015, The Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciated unexpectedly against the Euro by approximately 15%. We document a new fact: French firms that exported to both the Swiss market and the Eurozone also exhibited a sudden change in their export prices to the Eurozone. We coin this the “exchange rate pass-around” effect. We rationalise this fact with a simple model based on the endogenous decision of some firms to give up … ## Work in Progress ### Who Pays the Tariffs? URL: /research/who_pays_the_tariffs/ Authors: Anna Vorwig, Hendrik Mahlkow, Aaron Lohmann, Julian Hinz Working paper version of America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? — forthcoming. ### When dispersed teams are more successful: Theory and evidence from software URL: /research/gravity_oss/ Authors: Gábor Békés, Julian Hinz, Miklós Koren, Aaron Lohmann Visual representation of the model. Who collaborates with whom when physical co-location is no longer a constraint? How does the geographic composition of teams influence project success? We develop a model of global team formation and collaboration in which individuals have heterogeneous and partially observable skills, collaboration incurs geographic frictions, and project success depends on the best idea developed in the team. The model yields five testable predictions: (I) collaboration … ### Bugs 🐞 URL: /research/bugs/ Authors: Gábor Békés, Julian Hinz, Miklós Koren ### Firm-level Gravity with Fixed Effects URL: /research/firm_level_gravity/ Authors: Uğur Aytun, Julian Hinz, Cem Özgüzel, Joschka Wanner This paper introduces a new method for estimating gravity equations at the firm level by leveraging both firm and country-level trade data. By constructing a flexible estimation strategy that accounts for firm-level and country-level characteristics, in particular for multilateral resistances at origin and destination, we offer a novel approach to measure the impact of policy changes such as tariffs, sanctions, etc., on trade flows. Through a series of simulations and replications of established … ### The View from Space: Theory-based Time-varying Distances in the Gravity Model URL: /research/distances/ Authors: Julian Hinz Aggregate distances over time (Exponents in generalized mean of -1 and 1). Commonly used time-invariant distances from Mayer and Zignago (2011) for comparison. In this paper I use a general representation of the gravity model in international economics to derive a theory-consistent spatial aggregation of bilateral frictions. I apply the method to compute time-varying country-to-country distances, used in estimations of the gravity model in fields ranging from international trade, to foreign … ### State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade URL: /research/persistent_zeros/ Authors: Julian Hinz, Amrei Stammann, Joschka Wanner Determinants of the Extensive Margin of Trade — Gravity and Persistence. We study the role and drivers of persistence in the extensive margin of bilateral trade. Motivated by a stylized heterogeneous firms model of international trade with market entry costs, we consider dynamic three-way fixed effects binary choice models and study the corresponding incidental parameter problem. The standard maximum likelihood estimator is consistent under asymptotics where all panel dimensions grow at a … ### Frictions to intranational investment URL: /research/intranational_investment/ Authors: Inga Heiland, Julian Hinz Despite unhalted technological progress in transport and communication infrastructure over the past century, geographical and cultural distance remain major obstacles to the flow of goods and production factors to date. In this paper, we show that geographical and cultural distance forcefully shape intranational investment flows in Norway, preventing an efficient allocation of capital to firms. To that end, we derive a structural gravity equation of investment from a general equilibrium model … ### Separating the Wheat from the Chaff: Fast Estimation of GLMs with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects URL: /research/glmhdfe_technical_note/ Authors: Julian Hinz, Alexander Hudletz, Joschka Wanner In this note we describe how the first-order conditions of fixed effects in certain generalized linear models display a very convenient form. This can be exploited to implement a very fast GLM estimator with high-dimensional fixed effects, as we do in the R package glmhdfe. ### Frictions impede assortative matching in a global market for talent URL: /research/market_for_talent/ Authors: Keith Head, Julian Hinz ### Measuring Venezuelan Emigration with Twitter URL: /research/venezuelan_emigration/ Authors: Ricardo Hausmann, Julian Hinz, Muhammed A. Yıldırım Movement of Twitter users within Venezuela and to neighboring countries. Venezuela has seen an unprecedented exodus of people in recent months. In response to a dramatic economic downturn in which inflation is soaring, oil production tanking, and a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding, many Venezuelans are seeking refuge in neighboring countries. However, the lack of official numbers on emigration from the Venezuelan government, and receiving countries largely refusing to acknowledge a refugee … ## Commentary ### A Critical-Inputs Playbook: What the Strait of Hormuz Tells Europe URL: /research/critical_inputs_playbook/ Publication: Intereconomics, 61(3), June 2026 Europe imports only about 4% of its crude oil and 7% of its liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz. By those measures, the strait’s near-closure since the outbreak of war in February 2026 should barely register in European macro forecasts. Yet the European Central Bank cut its 2026 growth projection by 0.3 percentage points and raised its inflation projection by 0.7 points. The column traces this discrepancy to a tug-of-war between a bottleneck amplifier and a substitution … ### Der EU-Binnenmarkt als Schutzschild: Wie Europa den Handelskrieg mit den USA abfedert URL: /research/binnenmarkt_schutzschild/ Publication: Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, 2026(1) Die USA haben 2025 umfassende Importzölle eingeführt, die Europa direkt treffen. Die Analyse zeigt: Der EU-Binnenmarkt wirkt als Schutzschild gegen diese externen Schocks. Die Integration der europäischen Güter- und Arbeitsmärkte halbiert die regionale Streuung der Wohlfahrtseffekte und schützt insbesondere die am stärksten exponierten Regionen. Der durchschnittliche Wohlfahrtsverlust liegt bei rund 0,06 Prozent, während die Standardabweichung über die Regionen von 0,13 auf 0,06 Prozentpunkte … ### Trumps Zölle: Chaotische Entkopplung URL: /research/trumps_zoelle_chaotische_entkopplung/ Publication: Wirtschaftsdienst (Leitartikel), 105(4), April 2025 Die neue Welle US-amerikanischer Handelsbeschränkungen unterscheidet sich grundlegend von den Maßnahmen aus Trumps erster Amtszeit: Die Zölle sind höher, breiter angelegt und enthalten deutlich weniger Ausnahmen. Erwartet wurde eine weitere wirtschaftliche Entfernung der USA von China — die bisherigen Entscheidungen spiegeln jedoch eine weit radikalere und chaotische Abkehr der USA vom Welthandel insgesamt wider. Für die EU sind die wirtschaftlichen Folgen erheblich: Simulationen zeigen, dass … ### Sanctions coalitions: Stronger together URL: /research/voxeu_stronger_together/ Publication: VoxEU, October 2022 ### Engaging the Diaspora in Internationalizing Colombia's Economy URL: /research/unido_colombian_diaspora/ Publication: UNIDO Industrial Analytics Platform, March 2022 Colombia’s growth over the last two decades was driven by a handful of commodity-based industries, and the economy’s structural weakness traces back to a lack of diversification into more sophisticated products and services. The diaspora can support the country’s diversification and foster its economic integration into global value chains. Drawing on our study of 1.7 million members of the global Colombian diaspora, 3.5 million Twitter users of presumed Colombian origin, and a … ### Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions URL: /research/voxeu_worth_the_pain/ Publication: VoxEU, March 2021 ### Venezuelans Deserve Refugee Status URL: /research/project_syndicate_venezuelan_emigration/ Publication: Project Syndicate, May 2018 ### Transpazifische Partnerschaft TPP: Totgeglaubte leben länger URL: /research/wirtschaftsdienst_cptpp/ Publication: Wirtschaftsdienst, December 2017 ### Collateral damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports URL: /research/voxeu_collateral_damage/ Publication: VoxEU, July 2016 ## Data & Code ### PLAID URL: /data-code/plaid/ An open database of product-level indicators for international trade, covering six indicators across ~5,400 HS 6-digit products and all seven HS revisions (1992--2022). Generated by an ensemble of frontier LLMs with built-in uncertainty quantification. Available at plaid.julianhinz.com as bulk CSV downloads, a JSON API, and an interactive explorer. Authors: Carsten Brockhaus, Julian Hinz, Irene Iodice ### luhmann.sty URL: /data-code/luhmann.sty/ LaTeX Beamer style for academic presentations built on minimalist design. Authors: Julian Hinz ### mies.sty URL: /data-code/mies.sty/ A clean and typographic LaTeX article style inspired by Mies van der Rohe. Built for working papers and academic writing. Authors: Julian Hinz ### OSSIO URL: /data-code/ossio/ Open Source Software Input Output Tables — global input-output tables of open-source software flows between countries, constructed from developer locations and package dependencies across five programming languages and 15 countries. Published as a RADAR dataset by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, July 2024, under CC BY 4.0. Authors: Aaron Lohmann, Gábor Békés, Julian Hinz, Miklós Koren ### KITE URL: /data-code/kite/ The KITE (Kiel Institute Trade Policy Evaluation) model provides a tool for simulating and estimating various types of (trade) policy changes. The underlying model is a New Quantitative Trade Model (NQTM). The model has originally been developed by Caliendo & Parro (2015), building a multi-sector version of the Ricardian trade model of Eaton & Kortum (2002), where countries produce and sell domestically as well as internationally according to their relative comparative advantage. The model extends this framework by allowing for extensive intra- and international input-output linkages where goods and services may enter as both final and intermediate goods. Trade policy is conducted through the tightening or easing of trade barriers in form of tariffs and non-tariff measures. Authors: Julian Hinz, Hendrik Mahlkow, Joschka Wanner ### Gravity Distances URL: /data-code/gravity_distances/ Gravity-consistent aggregate distances between countries and other geographical entities Authors: Julian Hinz ### glmhdfe URL: /data-code/glmhdfe/ R package that implements a fast estimation procedure of generalized linear models with high dimensional fixed effects. The package makes use of a convenient property of *some* combinations of error term distributions and link functions, where the fixed effects have — conditional on all other estimated parameters — an explicit solution. Authors: Julian Hinz, Joschka Wanner, Alexander Hudlet ### gravity.distances URL: /data-code/gravity.distances/ R package that provides distances between geographic entities — such as countries, US states or Canadian provinces — that are consistent with the gravity equation in international economics. Authors: Julian Hinz ## Optional ## Talks - Tariffs Hit Differently: The Regional Impact of US Tariffs across Europe and the Role of the Single Market — Panel “Trade and Trade Wars”, World Trade Forum 2026, University of Bern, September 2026 - Competing with China in Third Markets — 3rd Kiel-Göttingen-CEPR Conference “China in the Global Economy”, Berlin, June 2026 - Discussion of “China tariffs” — by Antràs & Presbitero — 3rd Kiel-Göttingen-CEPR Conference “China in the Global Economy”, Berlin, June 2026 - Navigating Shocks: The Ripple Effects of Shipping Route Closures — Research Seminar, RWTH Aachen, June 2026 - To Russia With Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support — VfS Ausschuss Außenwirtschaft, Heidelberg, May 2026 [Slides](https://jhi.nz/260509_VfS_Heidelberg_de) - Modelling Trade Policies Using the KITE Model — OECD Chief Economists Meeting, Paris, April 2026 - AI Bootcamp: Tools for Economic Research — Kiel Institute AI Days, Kiel, April 2026 - Trade and Geoeconomics — Best of Geoeconomics @ Kiel Institute — Next-Geo Program, Kiel, April 2026 - Economic Security — Aspen Institute × Kiel Institute Discussion — Aspen Institute, Berlin, March 2026 - Global Trade Under Pressure: Status Quo, Scenarios, and Trade Diversion — Europe 360°, BDI — Brussels, February 2026 ## Teaching ### Teaching URL: /teaching/ Courses include: Data Science for Economists, Trade/Macroeconomics, Gravity Equations, International Economics, Statistics, and preparatory mathematics courses. Taught at Bielefeld University, Kiel Institute, and Sciences Po Paris.