# Julian Hinz > Empirical economist at Bielefeld University studying international trade, > sanctions, migration, and political economy. Julian Hinz is a professor at Bielefeld University and a research affiliate at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. His research uses large-scale data and quantitative trade models to study how political decisions shape international economic relationships. ## Published Papers ### Shooting down trade: Firm-level effects of embargoes URL: /research/shooting_down_trade/ Publication: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Volume 231: 106821, March 2025 Authors: Uğur Aytun, Julian Hinz, Cem Özgüzel Subjects: Embargo, Russia, Trade Sanctions, Firm-Level Analysis, Trade Redirection, Employment Effects Citations: 11 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=15286138517973526494,8894364877412500569&as_sdt=5) Imposition and lifting effect of the embargo. In November 2015, Turkey’s unexpected downing of a Russian military jet in Syria prompted Russia to impose a swift and comprehensive embargo on specific Turkish exports. This study leverages this quasi-natural experiment to estimate both the immediate and longer-term effects of the imposition and subsequent lifting of these sanctions. Utilizing administrative data encompassing all Turkish exporters, we first examine the impact on trade at the firm … ### Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes URL: /research/sanctions_coalitions/ Publication: Economic Policy, 39 (118): 471–512, April 2024 Authors: Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, Joschka Wanner Subjects: Embargo, Russia, Sanctions, Input-Output Linkages, Bayesian bootstrap Citations: 61 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=10037860346738639008,5039095324099844187&as_sdt=5) Incurred and imposed welfare costs of the 2014 Russia sanctions. This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition setups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanctions senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners; (iii) investigate “optimal” coalitions that maximise payoff from sanctions; (iv) provide bounds for … ### The Ties that Bind: Geopolitical Motivations for Economic Integration URL: /research/geopolitical_motivations/ Publication: Review of World Economics, 159 (1): 51–100, February 2023 Authors: Julian Hinz Subjects: geopolitics "trade agreements" "gravity equation" "event data" Citations: 32 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=16829130994622426713,10849255105984393492,4527205872069333820&as_sdt=5) Evolution of the mean of Importance of bilateral relations of big (left) and small (b) countries in future agreement with an EIA partner country and non-partner countries around trade deal at t = 0. Economic determinants of economic integration agreements have received ample attention in the economic literature. Political motivations for such agreements have been mostly studied as functions of domestic politics or in the context of conflict. In this paper the author suggests a different … ### Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia URL: /research/prices_in_russia/ Publication: Journal of International Economics, 137: 103581, July 2022 Authors: Julian Hinz, Evgenii Monastyrenko Subjects: Embargo, Russia, Sanctions, Input-Output Linkages Citations: 89 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=1000750321915081880,11706077639892239121&as_sdt=5) Evolution of average prices of embargoed and non-embargoed products. In August 2014, the Russian Federation implemented an embargo on select food and agricultural imports from Western countries in response to previously imposed economic sanctions. In this paper we quantify the effect of this embargo on consumer prices and welfare in Russia. We provide evidence for the direct effect on monthly consumer prices with a difference-in-differences approach. The embargo caused prices of embargoed … ### Après-ski: The Spread of Coronavirus from Ischgl through Germany URL: /research/coronavirus_from_ischgl/ Publication: German Economic Review, 22 (4): 415–446, November 2021 Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, Julian Hinz, Sonali Chowdhry Subjects: [Coronavirus super-spreaders Germany spatial diffusion negative binomial model tourism] Citations: 77 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=16776257571092204012&as_sdt=5) Observed vs. counterfactual confirmed cases on May 9, 2020. The Austrian ski resort of Ischgl is commonly claimed to be ground zero for the diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus across Germany. Drawing on data for 401 German counties, we find that conditional on geographical latitude and testing behavior by health authorities, road distance to Ischgl is indeed an important predictor of infection cases, but — in line with expectations — not of fatality rates. Were all German counties … ### Worth the pain? Firms' exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions URL: /research/worth_the_pain/ Publication: European Economic Review, 134: 103683, January 2021 Authors: Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz, Amrei Stammann, Joschka Wanner Subjects: [Sanctions trade foreign policy extensive margin firm behaviour] Citations: 189 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=6485060825913395886,13941251992968949173&as_sdt=5) Evolution of number of firms in face of sanctions. How do exporting firms react to sanctions? Specifically, which firms are willing — or capable — to serve the market of a sanctioned country? We investigate this question for four sanctions episodes using monthly data on the universe of French exporting firms. We draw on recent econometric advances in the estimation of dynamic fixed effects binary choice models. We find that the introduction of new sanctions in Iran and Russia … ### Critically Important: The Heterogeneous Effect of Diplomatic Tensions on Trade URL: /research/critically_important/ Publication: Review of Industrial Organization, 57 (2): 309–331, July 2020 Authors: Julian Hinz, Elsa Leromain Subjects: Trade frictions Political Relations Dependence Input Sourcing Citations: 17 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=4402819940039494916,4768665747275249052,14646251552753457247&as_sdt=5) Impact of diplomatic tensions on UK - Russia trade. Russian exports to UK and EU (left), Russian exports to UK by select HS sections (right). With global value chains interlocking today’s economies, what is the impact of diplomatic tensions on international trade? We exploit variation in monthly data on imports, a measure of imported input use in the domestic economy, and the incidence of bilateral diplomatic tensions to show that their impact on trade is heterogeneous across countries and … ### Friendly Fire: The Trade Impact of the Russia Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions URL: /research/friendly_fire/ Publication: Economic Policy, 35 (101): 97–146, May 2020 Authors: Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz Subjects: Sanctions Trade "Foreign policy" Boycott Embargo "Trade finance" Citations: 588 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=1365770739491390927,6023773083010323806,6154217373336881937,3184487968675086161,16044777043532716742,9256532853425275291&as_sdt=5) Monthly relative losses of exports to Russia. Economic sanctions are a frequently used instrument of foreign policy. In a diplomatic conflict they aim to elicit a change in the policies of a foreign government by damaging their economy. Sanctions, however, are also likely to affect the sanctioning country. This paper evaluates these costs, in terms of export losses, for the diplomatic crisis between the Russian Federation and 37 countries over the conflict in Ukraine that started in 2014. We … ## Book Chapters ### What if? The Effects of a Hard Decoupling from China on the German Economy URL: /research/what_if_china/ Publication: in "Paris Report 2: Europe's Economic Security", Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (eds), CEPR Press, Paris & London. May 2024 Authors: David Baqaee, Julian Hinz, Benjamin Moll, Moritz Schularick, Feodora Teti, Joschka Wanner, Sihwan Yang Subjects: [China decoupling de-risking Germany] Citations: 35 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=11441136330331720651&as_sdt=5) Cold turkey decoupling vs. gradual decoupling vs. gradual de-risking. How would the German economy cope with a hard economic decoupling from China? We study a scenario where the global economy fragments into three distinct blocs: the G7 economies and their allies, China and her allies, as well as neutral countries. German trade with China would have to be entirely rerouted to countries within the “Western” block and neutral countries. We quantify the costs of such a worst-case … ### Cost of Sanctions: Estimating Lost Trade with Gravity URL: /research/cost_of_sanctions/ Publication: In Disrupted Economic Relationships, CESifo Seminar Series at MIT Press, V. Nitsch and T. Besedeš eds. 2019 Authors: Julian Hinz Citations: 29 (Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cites=5453856864243936741,4011159130224977674&as_sdt=5) Economic sanctions are a frequently used tool of foreign policy. Constraining trade flows towards or from the target country is supposed to coerce its government into changing certain policies. However, sanctions constitute an obstacle to trade, thereby affecting flows of all countries, including those of sanctioning countries themselves. I gauge the global impact of three recent sanctions regimes using a structural gravity framework and quantify the “lost trade” in a general equilibrium … ## Policy Papers ### Competing with China in Third Markets URL: /research/competing_with_china_third_markets/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 213. June 2026 Authors: Sonali Chowdhry, Katharina Erhardt, Julian Hinz China’s export growth is increasingly concentrated in advanced manufacturing sectors, but the loss of European market shares in third markets is not explained by Chinese competition alone. Germany, France, and other European economies have also lost ground to competitors outside China in many markets. The brief argues against broad tariffs as the default response to Chinese competition. Instead, durable competitiveness requires investment in innovation and new technology. Where sectoral … ### The Ukraine Support Tariff: How Europe Can Support Ukraine and Weaken Russia URL: /research/ukraine_support_tariff/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 212. June 2026 Authors: Julian Hinz, Moritz Schularick A Ukraine Support Tariff on remaining EU–Russia trade would raise revenue for Ukraine while increasing pressure on Russia. The brief studies a combined import tariff and export-side levy on EU–Russia trade and evaluates revenue and welfare effects in partial and general equilibrium. At moderate tariff rates of 30–50%, the proposal could generate revenue that exceeds annual proceeds from frozen Russian asset interest income. General equilibrium simulations show asymmetric … ### The Cost of Closing the Strait of Hormuz: Energy Bottlenecks and Global Food Security URL: /research/cost_of_closing_hormuz/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 206. March 2026 Authors: Julian Hinz, Hendrik Mahlkow, Robin Sogalla, Gerald Willmann The brief analyzes a closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a global energy bottleneck that propagates through chemicals, fertilizer production, and food prices. Because the channel carries a large share of global oil and liquefied natural gas, the shock creates especially severe losses for energy- and fertilizer-import-dependent developing countries. Standard trade models understate these effects when they miss the bottleneck mechanism. The distributional burden is highly uneven: aggregate global … ### America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? URL: /research/americas_own_goal/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 201. January 2026 Authors: Anna Vorwig, Hendrik Mahlkow, Aaron Lohmann, Julian Hinz India exports to US: log(unit value) The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers. Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $4 trillion, we find near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices. US customs revenue surged by approximately $200 billion in 2025—a tax paid almost entirely … ### The EU–India Trade Deal: Strategic Diversification in an Era of Uncertainty URL: /research/eu_india_trade_deal/ Publication: Kiel Policy Brief, No. 202. January 2026 Authors: Julian Hinz, Rolf J. Langhammer, Hendrik Mahlkow, Vasundhara Thakur The brief studies an EU–India free trade agreement as a strategic diversification tool in a more uncertain trade environment. Simulations point to mutual welfare gains, substantially higher bilateral trade, and a meaningful reallocation of trade away from China. For India, the agreement provides a hedge against US tariff pressure. For the EU, it supports de-risking and signals a commitment to open trade. The structural benefits are framed as a long-term partnership rather than a temporary … ### Prinzipien für eine europäische Industrie- und Handelspolitik für das geoökonomische Zeitalter URL: /research/prinzipien_geoekonomische_industriepolitik/ Publication: Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 26(3): 290–298, September 2025 Authors: Julian Hinz, Irene Iodice, Moritz Schularick ### Perspektiven einer erfolgreichen europäischen Handelspolitik im Kontext geopolitischer Herausforderungen URL: /research/perspektiven_handelspolitik/ Publication: IfW Studie, May 2021 Authors: Julian Hinz, Gabriel Felbermayr, Katrin Kamin, Sonali Chowdhry, Anna-Katharina Jacobs, Sandra Kill, Alexander Sandkamp ### Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse URL: /research/big_data_makro_analyse/ Publication: Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik. No. 32, Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), Kiel. February 2021 Authors: Julian Hinz, Martin Ademmer, Joscha Beckmann, Eckhardt Bode, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Manuel Funke, Philipp Hauber, Tobias Heidland, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Mareike Söder, Vincent Stamer, Ulrich Stolzenburg ### Datenmonitor global — Wie die Corona-Krise die Länder des globalen Südens trifft URL: /research/datenmonitor_global/ Publication: IfW Studie im Auftrag des Auswärtigen Amtes, December 2020 Authors: Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, Jakob Kutsch, Hendrik Mahlkow, Vincent Stamer ### Bodenbildung in der Binnenwirtschaft, Kollaps des Welthandels URL: /research/spezial_corona_update_2/ Publication: Kiel Policy Briefs, Spezial Corona-Update 2, May 2020 Authors: Julian Hinz, Gabriel Felbermayr, Hendrik Mahlkow, Vincent Stamer ### Germany's economy in times of the Corona Lockdown URL: /research/spezial_corona_update_1/ Publication: Kiel Policy Briefs, Spezial Corona-Update 1, April 2020 Authors: Julian Hinz, Gabriel Felbermayr, Hendrik Mahlkow ### Russia’s and the EU’s Sanctions. Economic and Trade Effects, Compliance and the Way Forward URL: /research/wifo_2017_sanctions/ Authors: Elisabeth Christen, Oliver Fritz, Julian Hinz, Franz Sinabell ### Sanctions et embargos : quels impacts sur le commerce de la france vers la russie ? URL: /research/cepii_sanctions_et_embargos/ Publication: La lettre du CEPII, April 2016 Authors: Julian Hinz, Matthieu Crozet ## Working Papers ### PLAID: Product-Level AI-Derived Indicators Database for International Trade URL: /research/plaid/ Status: Kiel Working Paper, 2318, April 2026 Authors: Carsten Brockhaus, Julian Hinz, Irene Iodice Subjects: Trade Product Classification LLM Gravity HS-6 level Rauch classifications reveal substantial heterogeneity within individual SITC headings. Empirical trade research routinely relies on product-level indicators – whether goods are homogeneous or differentiated, perishable or durable, hazardous or benign – but existing classifications were built for older nomenclatures and have not kept pace with modern HS data. Mapping them forward through concordance tables introduces measurement error that is difficult to quantify and … ### Vibe Coding Kills Open Source URL: /research/vibe_coding_kills_open_source/ Status: arXiv working paper arXiv:2601.15494, January 2026 Authors: Miklós Koren, Gábor Békés, Julian Hinz, Aaron Lohmann Tailwind usage grows while engagement falls. Generative AI is changing how software is produced and used. In vibe coding, an AI agent builds software by selecting and assembling open-source software (OSS), often without users directly reading documentation, reporting bugs, or otherwise engaging with maintainers. We study the equilibrium effects of vibe coding on the OSS ecosystem. We develop a model with endogenous entry and heterogeneous project quality in which OSS is a scalable input into … ### Tariffs Hit Differently: The Regional Impact of US Tariffs across Europe and the Role of the Single Market URL: /research/tariffs_hit_differently/ Status: Kiel Working Papers, 2309, December 2025. Invited for submission to the Journal of Economic Geography Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, Julian Hinz, Sebastian Krantz, Hendrik Mahlkow, Joschka Wanner Subjects: [trade policy regional economics single market] Changes in labor location under U.S. tariff shocks. We study how recent U.S. tariffs ripple through European regions and how the EU Single Market cushions these shocks. Using a regionalized inter-country input–output framework with labor mobility, we embed 288 European NUTS2 regions in a global production network and quantify the heterogeneous effects of U.S. import protection. Our counterfactuals compare outcomes under an integrated versus a fragmented Europe. Integration allows firms and … ### Trade Sanctions URL: /research/trade_sanctions/ Status: Revise and resubmit at Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance Authors: Julian Hinz, Matthieu Crozet, Patrik Šváb Subjects: Trade sanctions, Russia, input-output linkages, firm-level trade, coalition design Number of exported products by French firms following the imposition of sanctions against Russia in 2022. We review the economics of trade sanctions and provide new macro and micro evidence with the Russia 2014 and 2022 episodes as central case studies. On the macro side, we calibrate a multi-country, multi-sector general-equilibrium trade model with input–output linkages to quantify welfare effects under alternative coalition and intensity scenarios. Relative to 2014, the 2022 measures … ### To Russia with Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support URL: /research/sanctions_and_russian_elections/ Status: CESifo Working Paper No. 11033, March 2024. Revise and resubmit at the Journal of the European Economic Association Authors: Robert Gold, Julian Hinz, Michele Valsecchi Subjects: Sanctions, voting behavior, gravity estimation, rally-around-the-flag Sanctions impact on regional exports. Do economic sanctions affect internal support of sanctioned countries’ governments? To answer this question, we focus on the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and identify their effect on voting behavior in both presidential and parliamentary elections. On the economic side, the sanctions significantly hurt Russia’s foreign trade — with regional variance. We use trade losses caused by the sanctions as measure for regional sanctions exposure. For … ### Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Election URL: /research/sanctions_and_french_elections/ Status: Kiel Working Papers, 2247, December 2023 Authors: Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz Subjects: Sanctions, Elections, Embargo, Russia, France Change in vote share for Le Pen and exports of embargoed products by destination. Sanctions are meant to coerce political adversaries through economic measures. However, evidence for their effectiveness is scarce. In this paper we assess the impact of sanctions on a democracy — France — by studying the electoral consequences of the sanctions and countersanctions imposed between Russia and Western countries. Contrary to most of the existing literature we find clear evidence for exposure to the … ### Exchange Rate Pass-Around URL: /research/exchange_rate_pass-around/ Status: Revise and resubmit at the International Economic Review Authors: Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz, Federico Trionfetti Subjects: Exchange rate pass-through, International trade, Pricing-to-market Exchange rate pass-around and pass-through over time. In January 2015, The Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciated unexpectedly against the Euro by approximately 15%. We document a new fact: French firms that exported to both the Swiss market and the Eurozone also exhibited a sudden change in their export prices to the Eurozone. We coin this the “exchange rate pass-around” effect. We rationalise this fact with a simple model based on the endogenous decision of some firms to give up … ## Work in Progress ### Who Pays the Tariffs? URL: /research/who_pays_the_tariffs/ Authors: Anna Vorwig, Hendrik Mahlkow, Aaron Lohmann, Julian Hinz Working paper version of America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? — forthcoming. ### When dispersed teams are more successful: Theory and evidence from software URL: /research/gravity_oss/ Authors: Gábor Békés, Julian Hinz, Miklós Koren, Aaron Lohmann Visual representation of the model. Who collaborates with whom when physical co-location is no longer a constraint? How does the geographic composition of teams influence project success? We develop a model of global team formation and collaboration in which individuals have heterogeneous and partially observable skills, collaboration incurs geographic frictions, and project success depends on the best idea developed in the team. The model yields five testable predictions: (I) collaboration … ### Bugs 🐞 URL: /research/bugs/ Authors: Gábor Békés, Julian Hinz, Miklós Koren ### Firm-level Gravity with Fixed Effects URL: /research/firm_level_gravity/ Authors: Uğur Aytun, Julian Hinz, Cem Özgüzel, Joschka Wanner This paper introduces a new method for estimating gravity equations at the firm level by leveraging both firm and country-level trade data. By constructing a flexible estimation strategy that accounts for firm-level and country-level characteristics, in particular for multilateral resistances at origin and destination, we offer a novel approach to measure the impact of policy changes such as tariffs, sanctions, etc., on trade flows. Through a series of simulations and replications of established … ### The View from Space: Theory-based Time-varying Distances in the Gravity Model URL: /research/distances/ Authors: Julian Hinz Aggregate distances over time (Exponents in generalized mean of -1 and 1). Commonly used time-invariant distances from Mayer and Zignago (2011) for comparison. In this paper I use a general representation of the gravity model in international economics to derive a theory-consistent spatial aggregation of bilateral frictions. I apply the method to compute time-varying country-to-country distances, used in estimations of the gravity model in fields ranging from international trade, to foreign … ### State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade URL: /research/persistent_zeros/ Authors: Julian Hinz, Amrei Stammann, Joschka Wanner Determinants of the Extensive Margin of Trade — Gravity and Persistence. We study the role and drivers of persistence in the extensive margin of bilateral trade. Motivated by a stylized heterogeneous firms model of international trade with market entry costs, we consider dynamic three-way fixed effects binary choice models and study the corresponding incidental parameter problem. The standard maximum likelihood estimator is consistent under asymptotics where all panel dimensions grow at a … ### Frictions to intranational investment URL: /research/intranational_investment/ Authors: Inga Heiland, Julian Hinz Despite unhalted technological progress in transport and communication infrastructure over the past century, geographical and cultural distance remain major obstacles to the flow of goods and production factors to date. In this paper, we show that geographical and cultural distance forcefully shape intranational investment flows in Norway, preventing an efficient allocation of capital to firms. To that end, we derive a structural gravity equation of investment from a general equilibrium model … ### Separating the Wheat from the Chaff: Fast Estimation of GLMs with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects URL: /research/glmhdfe_technical_note/ Authors: Julian Hinz, Alexander Hudletz, Joschka Wanner In this note we describe how the first-order conditions of fixed effects in certain generalized linear models display a very convenient form. This can be exploited to implement a very fast GLM estimator with high-dimensional fixed effects, as we do in the R package glmhdfe. ### Frictions impede assortative matching in a global market for talent URL: /research/market_for_talent/ Authors: Keith Head, Julian Hinz ### Measuring Venezuelan Emigration with Twitter URL: /research/venezuelan_emigration/ Authors: Ricardo Hausmann, Julian Hinz, Muhammed A. Yıldırım Movement of Twitter users within Venezuela and to neighboring countries. Venezuela has seen an unprecedented exodus of people in recent months. In response to a dramatic economic downturn in which inflation is soaring, oil production tanking, and a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding, many Venezuelans are seeking refuge in neighboring countries. However, the lack of official numbers on emigration from the Venezuelan government, and receiving countries largely refusing to acknowledge a refugee … ## Commentary ### Sanctions coalitions: Stronger together URL: /research/voxeu_stronger_together/ Publication: VoxEU, October 2022 ### Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions URL: /research/voxeu_worth_the_pain/ Publication: VoxEU, March 2021 ### Venezuelans Deserve Refugee Status URL: /research/project_syndicate_venezuelan_emigration/ Publication: Project Syndicate, May 2018 ### Transpazifische Partnerschaft TPP: Totgeglaubte leben länger URL: /research/wirtschaftsdienst_cptpp/ Publication: Wirtschaftsdienst, December 2017 ### Collateral damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports URL: /research/voxeu_collateral_damage/ Publication: VoxEU, July 2016 ## Data & Code ### PLAID URL: /data-code/plaid/ An open database of product-level indicators for international trade, covering six indicators across ~5,400 HS 6-digit products and all seven HS revisions (1992--2022). Generated by an ensemble of frontier LLMs with built-in uncertainty quantification. Available at plaid.julianhinz.com as bulk CSV downloads, a JSON API, and an interactive explorer. Authors: Carsten Brockhaus, Julian Hinz, Irene Iodice ### mies.sty URL: /data-code/mies.sty/ A clean and typographic LaTeX article style inspired by Mies van der Rohe. Built for working papers and academic writing. Authors: Julian Hinz ### luhmann.sty URL: /data-code/luhmann.sty/ LaTeX Beamer style for academic presentations built on minimalist design. Authors: Julian Hinz ### KITE URL: /data-code/kite/ The KITE (Kiel Institute Trade Policy Evaluation) model provides a tool for simulating and estimating various types of (trade) policy changes. The underlying model is a New Quantitative Trade Model (NQTM). The model has originally been developed by Caliendo & Parro (2015), building a multi-sector version of the Ricardian trade model of Eaton & Kortum (2002), where countries produce and sell domestically as well as internationally according to their relative comparative advantage. The model extends this framework by allowing for extensive intra- and international input-output linkages where goods and services may enter as both final and intermediate goods. Trade policy is conducted through the tightening or easing of trade barriers in form of tariffs and non-tariff measures. Authors: Julian Hinz, Hendrik Mahlkow, Joschka Wanner ### Gravity Distances URL: /data-code/gravity_distances/ Gravity-consistent aggregate distances between countries and other geographical entities Authors: Julian Hinz ### glmhdfe URL: /data-code/glmhdfe/ R package that implements a fast estimation procedure of generalized linear models with high dimensional fixed effects. The package makes use of a convenient property of *some* combinations of error term distributions and link functions, where the fixed effects have — conditional on all other estimated parameters — an explicit solution. Authors: Julian Hinz, Joschka Wanner, Alexander Hudlet ### gravity.distances URL: /data-code/gravity.distances/ R package that provides distances between geographic entities — such as countries, US states or Canadian provinces — that are consistent with the gravity equation in international economics. Authors: Julian Hinz ## Optional ## Talks - To Russia With Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support — VfS Ausschuss Außenwirtschaft, Heidelberg, May 2026 [Slides](https://jhi.nz/260509_VfS_Heidelberg_de) - Modelling Trade Policies Using the KITE Model — OECD Chief Economists Meeting, Paris, April 2026 - AI Bootcamp: Tools for Economic Research — Kiel Institute AI Days, Kiel, April 2026 - Trade and Geoeconomics — Best of Geoeconomics @ Kiel Institute — Next-Geo Program, Kiel, April 2026 - Global Trade Under Pressure: Status Quo, Scenarios, and Trade Diversion — Europe 360°, BDI — Brussels, February 2026 - Who Pays the Tariffs? — Bundesfinanzministerium, Berlin, January 2026 - Discussion of “Gravity in AI: How Digital Infrastructure Pulls Its Diffusion” — by Nuriye Bilgin & Gianmarco Ottaviano — Workshop on “AI, digitization and trade patterns” — PSE, Paris, December 2025 [Slides](https://jhi.nz/251212_PSE) - To Russia With Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Elections — DICE Düsseldorf, Germany, November 2025 [Slides](https://jhi.nz/251124_Dusseldorf) - .ice — Shareable Calibration Files for Quantitative Trade Models — December 5, 2025 — Workshop on NQTMs for Policy Advice, Berlin, Germany, November 2025 [Slides](https://jhi.nz/251205_NQTM_Workshop) - To Russia With Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Elections — Johannes Kepler University in Linz, Austria, November 2025 [Slides](https://jhi.nz/251112_Linz) ## Teaching ### Teaching URL: /teaching/ Courses include: Data Science for Economists, Trade/Macroeconomics, Gravity Equations, International Economics, Statistics, and preparatory mathematics courses. Taught at Bielefeld University, Kiel Institute, and Sciences Po Paris.